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  ELECTION COUNTDOWN

Battlefield Report: The Latest Marriage-Equality Poll Numbers From Washington State Don’t Look So Good

As we count down the days to the November 6 elections, Queerty is looking at the current situation in the marriage-equality battleground states of Washington, Maine, Maryland and Minnesota.

Today we look at Washington State, where gay-marriage advocates are working to uphold the state’s recent legalization of same-sex marriage.

Even though Washington United for Marriage, the campaign to approve Referendum 74, recently scored a whopping $500,000 donation from Bill and Melinda Gates, one poll shows the fight for equality is tighter than ever: An Elway survey released Wednesday, indicate support for Referendum 74 is under 50%, with supporters beating opponents 49% to 45%.

That’s only a four point margin—and considering “undecideds” often skew toward “no,” it’s too close for comfort.

Last week a different poll found same-sex marriage ahead by 54.1-38.4% among likely voters, but those numbers shifted to 52.9-46.6 when undecideds were factored in.

Opponents of same-sex marriage have argued consistently that a late voting trend will keep Washington from becoming the seventh state to legalize same-sex marriage.  Foes scored come-from-behind victories in 2008 with California’s Proposition 8 — now under challenge in the federal courts — and when Maine narrowly rejected marriage equality in 2009.

“We have gained 10 points since last month’s poll and are within 4 points and closing in:  The other side is under 50 percent for the first time,” Rev. Joe Fuiten, senior pastor at Cedar Park Assembly of God Church, wrote on his Facebook page.

“Praise the Lord. May we prevail,” Sylvia Stewart, a Facebook friend, responded.

Supporters of Referendum 74 have spent $9.5 million on their campaign, but have lost ground in the poll, compared to $1.5 million spent by opponents. But money isn’t everything— “The other side needs only to sell fear and anxiety, something which unfortunately they are very experienced at doing,” says Ref 74 backer Anne Levinson, a former deputy mayor of Seattle.

Want an example? Check out this misleading and manipulative ad. To volunteer or donate to the cause of equality, visit the Washington United for Marriage website.

 

 

 

By:           Dan Avery
On:           Oct 25, 2012
Tagged: , , , , , ,

  • 8 Comments
    • Katbox
      Katbox

      As usual the bigots have disabled the comment section.

      Oct 25, 2012 at 2:43 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • redcarpet
      redcarpet

      NOT OUR MORALS?!?!?!?!?! Says the out of state National Organization for Marriage!?!

      FUCK YOU IN THE WORST POSSIBLE WAY.

      Oct 25, 2012 at 3:39 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Zygot
      Zygot

      Glad to see they wasted their money on that ad

      Oct 25, 2012 at 3:49 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Charli Girl
      Charli Girl

      NOM NUTS… You are on your way out!!!!
      Do you really think we will stop until there is FULL EQUALITY????
      You’ll really be crying when you finally see places like Alabama, and KY backing us!!
      Bahahaha , can’t wait to see your stupid faces on CNN crying about the Big Gay like Lil cry baby Brian Fisher!!!

      Oct 25, 2012 at 5:05 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Charlie in Charge
      Charlie in Charge

      That’s not good at all. I have been a slacker and have not donated to the cause yet – will fix that right now.

      Oct 25, 2012 at 9:20 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • DarkZephyr
      DarkZephyr

      Thankfully polls are not real votes. I actually kind of wish that demoralizing polls were not reported on before the voting is all said and done.

      Oct 26, 2012 at 9:26 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • The Real Mike in Asheville
      The Real Mike in Asheville

      @DarkZephyr: The real fuck-up is that lame-brained Queerty posts are littered with inaccuracies and lousy on logic and thoroughness.

      I clicked the links and checked out the polling service. The same pollster grossly missed the mark when Ref. 71 (the everything but the word marriage civil unions) was voted on: the Elway poll showed it would be a close 48-44 result, when, the result was 54-46.

      In this year and case, Elway’s latest poll, per their own notes, used an adjustment factor of Democrats + 3. That means, once they have conducted their raw data collection, they adjust for the fact that there are more Dems than Reps in Washington State. THE BIG FUCKING FUCK-UP though, is that the number of more Dems over Reps is not 3%, but 14%. The Elway adjustment is BULLSHIT.

      The latest from Washington Poll, which uses an adjustment factor of Dem + 13, has the race at 54%-38% with 8% undecided.

      *****
      Come on Queerty, can’t you recruit at least 1 savvy journalist who understands journalism? And here I thought we gays were supposed to be good at recruiting.

      Oct 26, 2012 at 10:52 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • yaoming
      yaoming

      I like how in that ad “traditional marriage” has “stood the test of time”. That must be a pretty easy test to pass when about half of marriages end in divorce. Why don’t they go out and protest straight people getting divorced rather than gay people who would improve the statistics.

      Oct 26, 2012 at 11:40 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·

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