Mike

I Wanted Bruno & Settle for Pat Bateman, Bryan Hawn & Rod Daily

http://cdbaby.com/cd/mikeandrews2 (LINKS)

Well, they’ll be with us for a long time, perhaps the rest of our lives. But they’ll be like they are in most of Western Europe, a significant but marginal bloc who have lost this issue. That’s the hope anyway.

I believe the anti-gay marraige groups will simply label any popular victory as suspect or against God, and will continue. It’s not a movement based on rational thought.

I agree, and that’s what could happen in Maine. Like Vermont’s legislative victory has had repercussions on other states’ legislatures, a positive gay marriage vote in a state can have similar ones in other states. I don’t like the fact that we vote on the issue, but I think a winning vote might actually put the last nail in the coffin of the anti-gay marriage movement more quickly. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out, but the one thing I’m almost 100% sure of is that they will succeed in getting this to a referendum.

RE Shifting trends

Some of this is follow the leader. One of the many reasons I do not like rights decided by popular vote is human psychology. If other say they don’t like a right being granted, then there can be a bandwagon effect. Often even down South, not everyone was for Jim Crow, but the impact of public sentiment exacerbate the feeling that the belief was uniform. This increased the intertia of trying to change things. If it’s close, it’s not as good as if we had a clear lead, but I am hopeful given the momentum that this favors us because of people looking to their neighbors to see what they are doing. It’s human nature. If some are giving the rights to us, then the feeling could be a form of social pressure for other voters to do the same.

That’s what I’m trying to figure out. Usually these kinds of laws don’t take effect for a few months anyway, so my guess is the vote would take place beforehand.

Winnable yes but it’ll likely be a nail-biter either way. It’s hard to gauge, also, the shifting attitudes, they seem to be happening so fast in the last month.

If the bill passes with no veto from the governor, when would it go into effect? Would this date be regardless of a pending People’s Veto election?

@The Gay Numbers:

Last polls I saw showed SSM having more support than opposition in Maine…something like 53% support. But of course, we saw numbers like that in California, too. Things seem different right now though, and Maine is a less polarized environment than California.

The bill was introduced in the Senate first because that was going to be the toughest chamber to get it through. The Speaker of the House is a cosponsor of the bill and the Democratic majority is much larger in the House than the Senate.

The Governor is evolving on the issue, but no one still knows if he is going to sign it, so that’s the next big hurdle. If you live in Maine, please call Governor Baldacci and encourage him to sign the bill should it come to his desk.

Finally, the People’s Veto is likely. The opposition needs to collect just over 55,000 signatures between June 17 (end of session) and September 15 (90 days). It would be on the ballot either November 2009 or June 2010, depending on how quickly they gather their signatures and submit them to the Secretary of State.

But I’d still like to know if this would really be official before a “People’s Veto” vote later this year.