Many, Many Factors…
“Polls are too close to call, while the No on Prop 8 campaign, that supports gay marriage and is opposed to the constitutional amendment, hopes for a late result in the general election. If a victory is called for Mr Obama before the California polls have closed, many likely No voters will not bother turning up to vote, which could sway the result.” [FT]
Hmm, that is really, really worrying. Here’s hoping we wake up Wednesday morning with Obama as our next president (the first truly pro-gay rights president in history) and with gay marriage still intact in California!
(btw: I’m loving the “No on Prop 8″ design of Queerty right now).
Actually, also an Obama win before the polls close in California could also mean that many Yes on Prop 8 voters stay home.
Well – to be honest no one knows what will happen. The reality is that there is a dedicated group of No voters, but there are also a dedicated group of Democratic voters who will want to vote in a historic election that we frankly see once in a generation. Not only is it a potential harbringer of a political reallignment, but also the first black President in U.S. history. Who wants to say they weren’t a part of that? There is also the factor of the press not wanting to call it too early. Remember they have a stake in drawing out the drama. I don’t know what the turnout will look like. I just hope very deeply that we win this in CA. I believe very much that the last 30 years have taken America down a dark pathway. The victory of moving forward as country would be incomplete without Prop 8 failing.
Opps – that should have read there is a dedicated group of yes voters.
There is something incongruent about this. CA voters will overwhelmingly vote for Obama and perhaps, even probably, vote yes on prop 8. It does not jive.
I think you’re right on the one point, Kevin – why would a California democrat not bother to vote for Obama, even if he’s in the lead, when CA has the most electoral votes in the country? The CA results could turn even a commanding Obama lead into an electoral victory for McCain. But I don’t share your assertion that CA voters will ‘overwhelmingly’ vote in favor of prop8, or that Obama voters are more likely vote yes. Let’s hope for now that people will look to the best within themselves when voting. Yeah, I WAS alive in 2000 & 2004, but if I didn’t believe in change, I wouldn’t have bothered voting in the first place :-)