Maybe NOM Was Right: A Storm Is Coming. A Big Gay Hurricane, In Fact

Massachusetts. Connecticut. Iowa. Vermont. New Hampshire. Maine. D.C. A storm is definitely gathering, but not the type Maggie Gallagher and her merry band of crazies want. Rather, we’re seeing what Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall calls a “tipping point.” Ryan Sanger points to the “bandwagon effect,” which shows human beings naturally will support what’s seen as the winner — in this case, legalizing same-sex marriage — because the they want to fall in line with the rest of society. All the data shows Americans moving toward supporting equality, and as more people join the pro-civil rights side, the rate at which others join is expected to increase. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shows the pace at which support for same-sex marriage is rising, despite the National Review‘s wrong assumption that Americans aren’t joining “the agenda.”

It might explain the fearmongering and reactionary tactics from groups like the National Organization for marriage — they have no other choice but to sound the alarm, and their own “Gathering Storm” ad shows their desperation. It might also explain why even Republican politicos are beginning to come around, or at least place much less emphasis on where they stand on gay rights, because placing themselves in the “anti” category is bad for votes.