A SurveyUSA poll shows that Prop. 8 protests have changed the mind of 8% of respondents, which doesn’t sound like much, but as Kos points out “If eight percent of the 52.1 percent who voted for it have changed their minds, that’s a 4.2 percent swing in favor of equality. Or, put another way, you’re looking at a 52-48 vote in favor of gay marriage [in California based off of the Nov. 4th vote].” [DailyKos]
Prop. 8 Protests Are Changing Minds — A Little
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Bruno
It sounds nice, but it wouldn’t be a complete picture without asking all the “No” people if they’d now vote “Yes.” Unfortunately, there may be some.
Kid A
For sure, the actual reality of the situation will be a bit mushy.
That said, is this really a popularity contest? For prop 8 it was, only because it was up to popular vote, but shouldn’t we be focused on getting our rights instead of getting people to like us?
Kid A
To clarify, I’d much rather be able to adopt than simply have the peace of mind knowing that the Whataburger manager is okay with my rainbow pin. Ya know?
The Gay Numbers
Rights should not be a subjected to popular will. I wish someone would poll this question: if you knew that your vote on Prop 8 would mean that the majority could vote against other minority groups such as blacks, Latinos and minority religious groups- would you still vote for 8? This is the part that’s missing. People need to understand the ramification of 8 are broader than 8.
DaveO
The same survey says 40% voted FOR Prop 8, 46% voted AGAINST Prop 8 and the rest aren’t sure or didn’t vote. If all the people who weren’t sure voted Yes, then the survey breakdown is 43/46, which normalizes to 48.3/51.7. As we know, the result was ACTUALLY 52/48 or so. So about 4% of the respondents are lying.
What we have here is a gay version of the so-calle “Bradley effect”, where poll respondents lie to pollsters by giving the more politically correct answer.
The Gay Numbers
@DaveO: The Bradley Effect was actually concerning Exit Polls, if I am remembering correctly. This is one of the reasons why I questioned trusting the Exit Polls completely. We can’t know whether any subgroup actually voted the way it said it did. How many white liberals for example would admit to having not voted against Prop 8?
DaveO
@The Gay Numbers: “Bradley Effect” refers to opinion polls in general.
The Gay Numbers
@DaveO: You are missing the point. The question regarding the Bradley Effect is where are people more likely to lie?
Exit Polling is where they are more likely to lie because exit poll are likely to put people on the spot. The key is where to people fel compelled to lie.
It’s the same reason that they often say that exit polls often under count conservatives. The so called effect where conservatives feel shy about telling pollster their real views on issues.
Here’s one post
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
queerunity
this means nothing, the 8% may be offended by the protests and would now vote “yes”
http://queersunited.blogspot.com/
The Gay Numbers
@queerunity: If you are going to make up numbers why not just say 70 percent are offended rather than try to mactch the real poll exactly. I never understand people making shit up only to half ass it.
chuck
Sorry folks: This sounds a litle like….
Here I sit broken hearted.
Paid a nickel to shit…
and only farted!
The fuckers voted the way they voted. If they are ruing that fact, then why are they not trying to get Prop 8 overturned? Hmmm?
The Gay Numbers
@chuck: The vote from 2000 to 2008 shifted by 10 points n the yes side into our favor on the no side.
Bruno
@The Gay Numbers:
I do think people will lie at exit polls, but also on the telephone with live people. Like the Field & PPIC polls…and I wonder if people might not even be wondering if the person they’re talking to is gay/gay-friendly or not. That’s why I think, even with its limitations, the robocalling of SurveyUSA may actually diminish the “Liberace Effect” as I like to call it flippantly.
DaveO
@The Gay Numbers: There is no exit poll here. I am comparing this SUSA poll with the actual election results, and demonstrating that there is a discrepancy. The respondents in this SUSA poll did not answer the questions about which way they voted on Prop 8 in the same proportion as the actual vote turned out. Maybe this demonstrates a “Bradley Effect”, maybe it casts into doubt the other questions too.
chuck
@The Gay Numbers:
Well, that IS encouraging to hear. 🙂