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This ought to be very interesting.
To be more specific, they will be looking at ALL TEN of the same-sex marriage petitions November 30th.
8 of these relate to DOMA.
1 relates to Prop 8 out of California
1 relates to a case out of Arizona
Although I’m not sure, I would guess that most (if not all) of the 10 rulings FAVOR equality and ruled against DOMA, etc.
That being said, it would be incredibly difficult (imo) for SCOTUS to overturn these rulings. Most of these rulings were likely based on the Equal Protection Clause and Due Process.
Is SCOTUS going to basically say that all of these prior rulings are wrong? I highly doubt that SCOTUS would overrule all of these decisions that seem to be saying the same thing: marriage discrimination is unconstitutional.
*** To clarify…. I would guess that most (if not all) of the LOWER COURT rulings FAVORED equality and ruled against DOMA, etc. Thus, SCOTUS would need to be overturning many lower court rulings if SCOTUS decided that DOMA is not unconstitutional, etc.
My guess is, that the best the ultra-conservatives on the court can hope for is that the court refuses to hear the challanges or approves very narrow decisions on them.
If they refuse to hear Prop 8 for instance, the only immediate effect would be that marriage would become legal in CA.
But if they hear a DOMA case and it favors marriage, game over for the bigots nationwide. SO I”m betting Scalia and Thomas will argue to refuse to hear them and Ginsberg, Kagen, etc… will argue to take the cases.
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