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Thought of the Day: Nate Silver

“If John Kerry had won four years ago, and invited Warren or some analogous pastor to give his invocation, would there have been this much debate about it? It’s hard to say for sure, but I don’t think we would have heard very much about it at all. This all feels very recent, stemming from a renewed self-confidence on the part of the left, coupled in this particular instance with the aftermath of Proposition 8.

I say this as someone, by the way, who buys into the “Can’t we all just get along?” side of the argument. There’s a difference between feeling as though you have superior morals and feeling morally superior, and some of the discussion has veered toward the wrong side of that equation. Nevertheless, I think the passion aroused among the left on the issue has been fairly impressive, and is potentially fairly consequential.”– Nate Silver, Founder of FiveThirtyEight on criticism of Obama’s selection of Rev. Rick Warren to officiate at the Inauguration.

By:           Japhy Grant
On:           Dec 24, 2008
Tagged: , ,

  • 25 Comments
    • Darth Paul
      Darth Paul

      Finally an astute assessment instead of knee-jerk ranting.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 9:52 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • The Gay Numbers
      The Gay Numbers

      He mostly gets it wrong by define the discussion in terms of gay marriage rather than more broadly how Warren discusses gays as subhuman. I wanted to post this on his site, but I have finally realized what’s the point. The cw on this is just that its about gay marriage rather than Warren being disagreeable man acting disagreeably.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 10:48 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • The Gay Numbers
      The Gay Numbers

      As to the thought experiment, he’s basically wrong. Kerry had several opportunities 4 years ago to be pushed by the religious right. Kerry choose not to follow their path- his response was always as a Catholic he was taught that the job of a good Christiian is to do good works, not to follow grace. This is, of course, the opposite of evangelicals who are looking for a way into heaven by being saved rather than by the acts they do here on earth.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 10:51 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • FNT
      FNT

      These people need a reality check. Why are we talking about if that happened, that wouldn’t happen. BLAH BLAH! Anti gay bigot black president choose this clown as his reverent. That is the solid reality on our gay faces. Stop distorting truths. We stop supporting Obama, so he can feel the fear he is loosing so many votes. Politician would do anything for more votes. After that he will do anything to regain gay people.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 10:56 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • rigso
      rigso

      The apologists for Obama continue to roll in. THE SIMPLE TRUTH? He could have chosen a pastor who didn’t compare our lives to pedophilia and incest PERIOD

      Dec 24, 2008 at 11:30 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Michael W.
      Michael W.

      @FNT: What does him being black have to do with anything?

      And a decade long pro-LGBT voting record in the Illinois state and US Senate says otherwise.

      Barack Obama is one of the best friends the gay community has. He’s just taking down the system from the inside.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 12:01 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Darth Paul
      Darth Paul

      @FNT: If you think the queer demographic is monolithic and a major vote contributor, you’re the one in desperate need of a reality check.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 12:11 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Norman
      Norman

      I think he captures and misses the point at the same time:

      “This all feels very recent, stemming from a renewed self-confidence on the part of the left, coupled in this particular instance with the aftermath of Proposition 8.”

      Yes, Nate. That is the problem. Because Warren so freshly bruised our community, we are rightfully sore. For Obama to choose him to give the invocation now is, at best, insensitive to a minority. At worst, it’s taking sides. The jury is still out.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 1:01 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • mark
      mark

      If in 2004 Kerry had invited Warren after 12 of 13 ANTI-GAY initiatives passed….Kerry would have gotten an even angrier response.
      I’m noticing a pattern with Etheridge, Tammy Baldwin that the Obama team and everyone of their lackeys are getting LGBT voices to attempt to tamp down the Warren anger…BIG MISTAKE.
      This anger isn’t finite, just to Team Obama and Warren and Congressional Inaugural committee. You get in the path of this OUTRAGE of being SPIT ON, on Day ONE, that rage will engulf you too.
      Mike Signorelli, Barney Frank, and Rachel Maddow, Pam Spaulding aren’t buying this PLAY NICE theme.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 3:50 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • hardmannyc
      hardmannyc

      Nate Silver is totally jewish geeky hot. But that’s not very on-topic, is it?

      Dec 24, 2008 at 3:58 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Herbert Wassinger
      Herbert Wassinger

      Rigso, Mark, et al.:

      You are right on. We do not have to and should not tolerate hate speech. And, don’t forget the term “bestiality”. Does anyone think that Obama would have invited a pastor to give the invocation if that pastor had recently compared Clarence Thomas’ marriage to his white wife (in Virginia, no less, where such a marriage was against the law until the law was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1967) to bestiality? Would the Obama children just be expected to grin smile and look on? Who was that man, Daddy? I don’t think so. It is just a question of whose ox is being gored. And it is not Obama and his people. It is us.

      But don’t just preach to the choir here and be silent to the offenders. Tell them that they are wrong in this awful insult.
      Barney Frank has spoken out forcefully. Thank you to him. You all should too.

      (Happy Holidays to All)

      Dec 24, 2008 at 5:04 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • BrianPrince
      BrianPrince

      I like his glasses. They frame his face well.

      I agree with him, too… this baby-mama-drama has taken quite a toll… although, I’m glad to see an uproar about SOMETHING. It’s odd, though, that we can’t just agree to disagree.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 8:07 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • gkruz
      gkruz

      Wow, don’t go out too far on that limb, Nate! You wouldn’t want to fall off and land in some soft, gooey “what-if-John-Kerry-who-was-never-elected-President-had-done-something-as-bad-as-Barack-Obama-who-was-elected-President” swamp of irrelevant alternative history speculation in a feeble, wimpy attempt to rescue your hero from the criticism he deserves. Reality is so hard!

      Dec 24, 2008 at 9:27 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • The Gay Numbers
      The Gay Numbers

      @BrianPrince: How do you think change happens? through everyone sitting around saying “oh well we disagree. let’s agree to disagree.” politics is about conflict. That’s at the heart of why politics exists. Its not about agreeing to disagree. it’s about saying – you are wrong. I am right. Now let see who wins. We live in a winner take all society.

      Dec 24, 2008 at 9:28 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Marty
      Marty

      I <3 Nate Silver!!!!!!!! =)

      Dec 25, 2008 at 12:23 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • BrianPrince
      BrianPrince

      @The Gay Numbers:

      Political science is about conflict. More specifically, it’s about conflict resolution — that’s the science part… it’s not the study of a bunch of old people arguing about crap — it’s about coming to an agreement.

      The fact that you still view the world in a right/wrong fashion depicts a great deal about your personality and growth as a person. Are you the one who tells everybody else that their faith is wrong, because your faith is right… or that, because you go left to get there from here, you can’t do it going to the right?

      People will disagree — it’s human nature… the thing that separates us from the animals (some of us… at least), is recognizing that those differences are what make us unique… and that compromise is important. I don’t expect the federal government to give me gay marriage right now — that would be absurd, particularly with the state of our nation — something (maybe… civil unions, or domestic partnership…) though — because it’s a step in the right direction.

      SOMETIMES we have a winner-take-all society… sometimes we really don’t. Our nation has been built upon MANY compromises, and if you fail to see that, then you’re either blinded by your desire to be right all the time, or you’re just not looking.

      In short, put away your ego… and grow a little.

      Dec 25, 2008 at 1:41 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • BrianPrince
      BrianPrince

      @The Gay Numbers: Notice how I took your approach in the last post… and it solved nothing?

      Dec 25, 2008 at 1:42 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Mark
      Mark

      Tell me again what percentage of gay men voted for McCain? 40%? Now you get his main man Rick Warren…Be careful what you wish for.

      Dec 26, 2008 at 3:12 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Michael W.
      Michael W. [Different person #1 using similar name]

      @Mark: “Tell me again what percentage of gay men voted for McCain?”

      27%, the highest ever for a Republican candidate. It was the only demographic across the board, from northeastern soccer moms to southern evangelicals, where the Republican candidate made a gain from the last presidential election.

      Dec 26, 2008 at 11:51 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • RichardR
      RichardR

      @rigso: Or he could have said “No invocation. See Constitution.”

      Dec 26, 2008 at 12:02 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Mark
      Mark

      @Michael W.

      Seems like an underestimate. Assume a 70/30 split between gay men and women, with virtually zero lesbians voting for McCain – that puts gay male support over 35%. Then factoring in the potential unwillingness of both McCain voters and gay people to identify themselves as such to an exit pollster, and I’d say you’re looking at 40%.

      Compare that to 14% in San Francisco, 14% in Manhattan, 20% in Brooklyn and 23% in Chicago. Or 42% in Barnstable County, where Provincetown is located.

      Dec 26, 2008 at 1:09 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Tim in SF
      Tim in SF

      “If John Kerry had won four years ago, and invited Warren or some analogous pastor to give his invocation, would there have been this much debate about it? It’s hard to say for sure, but I don’t think we would have heard very much about it at all.”

      Prove it.

      Dec 27, 2008 at 2:01 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • BrianPrince
      BrianPrince

      @RichardR: I’m with Richard on this one… there’s been entirely too much baby-mama-drama in the queer community over this homo-hatin’ preacher.

      Obama should have said, “No invocation, see Constitution.”

      Dec 27, 2008 at 8:04 pm · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • jiminportlandoregon
      jiminportlandoregon

      @hardmannyc: No, it is not on topic, however, I could not agree with you more. In fact, let’s make it a topic in a new thread.

      Dec 29, 2008 at 1:01 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·
    • Mister C
      Mister C

      Well, The bottom line is this we all have choices and like Michael W stated 27% of gay men voted for McCain and trust it was NOT due to inexperience of Obama. But more likely due to race and that was stated over all the gay blogs.

      But now Rick Warren comes along and I don’t like him at all. But now before the damn man takes office all of this don’t vote for him and no longer support him and so on. And he hasn’t had a chance to do ANYTHING as PRESIDENT.

      But that’s cool. Don’t re-elect him because the fact is this the alternative parties i.e GREEN,BROWN,COCK,QUEEN and all the rest will never win this high of office and with the Dems they will and have helped our community but they are NOT going to sacrifice their career just for one community of people NOT EVEN THE CLINTONS. So to protest and complain is a choice and who wouldn’t.

      But to say I’m not voting for him again and so forth is BOGUS. PLEASE then find a Presidential,or Senatorial,or Gubernatorial candidate who will put us GAYS at the front and give us GAYS everything we want and they can STILL get at least 65% of heterosexual support.

      Then we’re doing something. But that will never happen so be careful about this you need to let the man do his damn job then in 4 years time you can make a serious choice about all of this.

      Dec 29, 2008 at 5:51 am · @ReplyReply to this comment ·

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