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Bitter and resentful outsider, Clarence Thomas, will do whatever Scalia and Alito do because he’s a follower and can’t reason for himself. 3:6 in favor of equality.
@1EqualityUSA: Whoa, you think Roberts will be in the majority? Doubtful. I say 5-4 with Kennedy casting the deciding vote. I bet it will be on federalism grounds – I sincerely doubt the Court will make a sweeping ruling invalidate state laws banning gay marriage.
hmmm. Right side of history….?
@1EqualityUSA: Here’s to hoping, but courts are by and large conservative institutions that don’t want to get too far ahead of public opinion. I wonder if Roberts would join a federalism-based decision. Or if perhaps he wants to consider his legacy on the Court and join a more sweeping decision.
I predict DOMA will be thrown out on federalism grounds while Prop 8 is thrown out on Equal Protection grounds (narrowed to the extent that it only applies to cases where rights were given in the first place before being taken away). Both 5-4. Anything more and I’ll tip my hat.
If I wore hats, I would tip them for a sweeper vote. We’ve been unrecognized for too long. It’s embarrassing.
DOMA and Prop 8 both booted in a 5-4 decision.
Considering how SCOTUS likes to split hairs at times, it is quite possible that they take an alternate route and actually refuse to accept “standing” by either the House (for the DOMA case) or for the defendants (Prop 8). The Harvard Law School professor that SCOTUS hired to study “standing” on behalf of SCOTUS seems to believe that SCOTUS may not have the jurisdiction for one or both of these cases… and that “standing” by some parties is seriously questionable.
So, I wouldn’t be surprised, although I’d be discouraged, if SCOTUS came up with an alternate ruling that kicks the ball into another type of ruling. At least in 1 of the 2 cases.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Even though Obama seems to have changed his opinion based on how he thinks his support base will react, he is the most outwardly supportive president to date.
The DOMA case should fall 7-2 with Kennedy, Thomas and Roberts voting on state rights.
The Prop 8 case will be upheld by Kennedy. Only Roberts is the wild card here, given that he already allowed an assault on our rights on the forced mandate of Obamacare I don’t think he will stick his neck out again.
Obama filing a brief for the 9 state solution forces Kennedy to be more likely to uphold Prop 8. If it was just restricted to CA Kennedy would follow his own precedent in Romer v Evans. The best case scenario for gays in Prop 8 would be that the case is dismissed on procedural grounds.
Prop 8 doesn’t stand a chance, legally.
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