‘Chicago’ vs. ‘Minari;’ Diva vs. Diva; & Black Panther’s last roar: Queerty Predicts the Oscars!

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”)

Poor, poor Glenn Close. She’s all but certain to lose the Oscar again this time, thus tying Peter O’Toole as the most nominated actor to never actually win. Her inclusion here speaks more to her pedigree than her work; Hillbilly Elegy is the worst movie of 2020. Colman continues a career winning streak with The Father, though her achievement is in getting a nomination at all given The Father’s subject matter. Oscar does love an ingenue, which could work in favor of Bakalova, who is enjoying a Hollywood Cinderella story. On the other hand, much like Sacha Baron Cohen (see above), she’ll likely suffer as the Academy rushes to honor Borat Subsequent Moviefilm in the Screenplay category. Seyfried too will benefit from her ingenue status, and because she’s Mank’s best chance to win one of the major awards. On the other hand, she lost both the Golden Globe and the SAG award. With that in mind, our money is on Yuh-Jung Youn to take home the gold.

Who Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn

Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried

Best Actress

Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)

The toughest category to call this year, Best Actress could go any number of ways. Momentum for Pieces of a Woman has diminished, and as such, watch Kirby fall by the wayside. That said, any of the remaining ladies here could triumph on Oscar night. Nomadland has the strongest momentum of any film this year, so McDormand might pick up her third golden boy. That said, she just won a few years ago for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO for playing a very similar character. Buzz for Mulligan has grown in the past few weeks, though given her loss at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, we don’t see her winning on the big night (her disingenuous targeting of a gay film critic for sexism also doesn’t endure her to us). Davis has an Oscar, but not in the Best Actress category. There’s a feeling in Hollywood that she should have won years ago (making her the second African American to win in the category), and that sentiment could lead her to the finish line. Her recent win at SAG also furthers her momentum. That leaves Day, who beat out all these ladies at the Golden Globes. She’s nothing short of a revelation in Billie Holiday, though that movie’s uneven quality and given that she’s the sole nomination for the movie, she’s a long shot for sure (we can only think of a handful of times that an actress as her film’s sole nomination actually won here). This is going to be very close to call, but that said…

Who Will Win: Viola Davis

Who Should Win: Andra Day

Who Could Cause an Upset: Carey Mulligan

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)

By far the easiest category of the evening to call, Best Actor boils down to one man alone: Chadwick Boseman. He won just about every major award out there for his work in Ma Rainey, and it’s no wonder: he gave the performance of the year, and the best of his career in the film. The sentiment around his untimely death also won’t slow his momentum. Everyone else here is along for the ride, and that includes previous winner Oldman and rising star Ahmed, both of whom did outstanding work in their respective films. Hopkins also has sentiment going for him—he’s one of the great living actors, and Yeun has Minari’s momentum. And none of it matters; this was sewn up the day of the nominations.

Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman

Who Should Win: Chadwick Boseman

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”

If Nomadland didn’t have such considerable buzz, this category would be much harder to call. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm offers a chance to award both Sacha Baron Cohen and Maria Bakalova at the same time, though the Academy doesn’t always like to recognize comedy. The White Tiger’s inclusion here is something of a surprise given it’s lack of other nominations, it’s honors come from the nod. Both The Father and One Night in Miami feature terrific scripts, though their lack of Best Director nominations works against them. That leaves Nomadland as the obvious winner.

Who Will Win: Nomadland

Who Should Win: One Night in Miami

Best Original Screenplay

“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Here’s where the screenplay competition gets interesting. All five movies scored Best Picture nominations, which makes this substantially harder to call. The script to The Trial of The Chicago 7 is the movie’s strongest attribute, though it’s probably not enough to score Aaron Sorkin another Oscar. Sound of Metal’s lack of a Best Director nod also signals it probably doesn’t have the momentum to win. With Kaluuya set to win in Best Supporting Actor, the Academy probably won’t want to award the movie yet again. That leaves Promising Young Woman and Minari, both of which have considerable buzz. That said, we have a feeling since Emerald Fennell will not win Best Director, and since Minari looks to pick up a win in Supporting Actress, our money is on Promising Young Woman. It’s a wily, scathing movie, and Carey Mulligan’s performance benefits from the material more so than vice versa.

Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman

Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman

Best Director

Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
David Fincher (“Mank”)
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)
Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)

Back when Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman to win Best Director in 2008, presenter Barbra Streisand proclaimed “The time has come.” Well, you heard it here first folks: the time has come again. 2021 will see the second female Best Director win when Chloé Zhao walks up to the stage to claim her statuette. Nomadland has the clear momentum here, and given that the story is easier to swallow than Minari or Promising Young Woman (the two other major contenders), our money is on her. David Fincher is always the biggest star of a David Fincher movie, and Mank is no exception, though that film suffers from some major historical inaccuracies and Fincher’s usual nihilism. Vinterberg’s win is in the nomination, so that means Zhao—a woman on the edge of a major career given her direction of Marvel’s Eternals later this year—has this one just about sewn up.

Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao

Who Should Win: Chloé Zhao