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Did Prop 8 Pass Because of Voter Fraud? There Might Not Be Another Statistical Explanation For It

So after pouring over all the exit poll data and conducting an “exhaustive analysis” on what California voters were telling surveyors about which lever they pulled compared to how they actually voted, the International Humanities Center’s Election Defense Alliance has reached this pretty startling conclusion over how Prop 8 passed: voter fraud is at hand. Woah now.

The group writes in a report:

Exhaustive analysis of exit polls conducted in Los Angeles County has led to the inescapable conclusion that the vote count for Proposition 8 (the ban on same-sex marriage) may have been corrupted. The data were drawn from questionnaires filled out by 6326 voters at 10 polling places scattered across Los Angeles County, and were properly adjusted to match the gender, age, race, and party affiliation of the electorate.

For Proposition 4 (which would have required parental notification and a waiting period for minors seeking abortions), the official results differ from the adjusted exit poll data by only 0.64%. But for Proposition 8, the disparity between the official results and the adjusted exit poll data is 5.74%, enough to affect the margin by 11.48%.

Because Los Angeles County comprised 24.23% of the statewide electorate, an error of that magnitude would have affected the statewide margin by 2.78%, accounting for most of the official 4.48% statewide margin of victory.

There were not enough Republican voters to account for the disparity between the exit poll and the official results even if every Republican non-responder voted for Proposition 8. The Edison-Mitofsky exit poll showed a similar disparity statewide, indicating that altered vote counts may not be limited to Los Angeles County.

The gross disparities leave four options, EDA claims: (1) a basic flaw in the exit poll methodology; (2) many voters lying on the questionnaire; (3) a non-representative sample of voters responding; or (4) the official results being erroneous or fraudulent. And it’s the last one they’re all but concluding is the truth.

The interpretation that the disparity between the exit poll data and the official results for Proposition 8 is due to a corrupted vote count is bolstered by the fact that the official results for Proposition 4 are so easily explained by data from the very same exit poll – the same voters, the same day. The official results for Proposition 8 may very well be fraudulent.

The interpretation that the official results for Proposition 8 are true and correct not only requires that Republican exit poll responders were very different from Republican non-responders, but that Democratic, third-party, and unaffiliated exit poll responders were likewise non-representative of the electorate. This argument would render useless and invalid any exit poll conducted anywhere – in Ukraine, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, Ohio or California – because it would allow the results of any exit poll to be dismissed on the unwarranted assumptions that the official results are true and correct, that the exit poll responders must not be representative of the electorate, and that the exit poll results must therefore be wrong. But exit polls have a long history of being remarkably accurate reflections of the electorate. In Germany and elsewhere, exit polls are relied upon to forecast the winners of the elections, and citizens are content to wait for days to hear the official count.

Read the entire, exhaustive report here.