With the 94th Annual Academy Awards set to return this Sunday, we here at Queerty have two immediate thoughts: 1. Thank goodness the full show is back, and 2. Thank goodness the movies are better than last year.
Indeed, as most of Hollywood returns to the Dolby for the show, we’re readying our Oscar ballot for the annual pool. And once again, unlike last year, this year the race is wide open.
That always makes for a more exciting evening. So then, without further adieu, find here our predictions for this year’s Oscar glory. Will a queer winner take to the stage? Will the Academy finally silence its critics?
One way to find out: the ceremony airs on ABC on Sunday, March 27.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- JAVIER BARDEM, Being the Ricardos
- BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH, The Power of the Dog
- ANDREW GARFIELD, tick, tick…BOOM!
- WILL SMITH, King Richard
- DENZEL WASHINGTON, The Tragedy of Macbeth
This year features a diverse and rich collection of performances, and while it might seem like one actor has a lock on a win…if last year proved anything, it’s that upsets do still happen. This is Will Smith’s trophy to lose. He’s commanded the movies for three decades now and still ranks as one of the most popular stars in the world. He’s also grown considerably as an actor, as King Richard proves. That said, he does have heavy-duty competition from previous winners Bardem and Washington, who have a stronger pedigree. Voters who don’t think Smith is a real actor could gravitate toward either of them. Garfield and Cumberbatch, likewise, are previous nominees and voters may feel they’re due. Garfield’s crowd-pleasing turn in Spider-Man: No Way Home could endear him to viewers who want the Academy to look pop-culture aware. Cumberbatch gives a magnificent turn in Power of the Dog, and since the movie led this year’s nominations, he could have the momentum to put him over the top.
That said, we’re saving risk-taking for other categories this year.
Who Will Win: Will Smith.
Who Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- CIARÁN HINDS, Belfast
- TROY KOTSUR, CODA
- JESSE PLEMONS, The Power of the Dog
- J.K. SIMMONS, Being the Ricardos
- KODI SMIT-MCPHEE, The Power of the Dog
If there’s an upset category this year, we have a feeling it could happen here. Kotsur seems to have the momentum coming off his SAG win. That Coda also did well at the Producers Guild Awards also signals Kotsur should have the advantage. Given that Power of the Dog did score a rare four acting nominations, we could see Smit-McPhee snag a statue since none of his fellow nominees are likely to win. While Plemons appears in the same film, Smit-McPhee has the larger and more flamboyant role. He’ll likely eclipse his co-star. Buzz around Being the Ricardos has faded, and given that Simmons has won in this category before, we’ve a feeling he’s gotten all the love he’s going to get already. That leaves Hinds, and though Belfast did well in the nominations, the real star of that movie–and its most likely wins–belong to director Kenneth Branagh.
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur.
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons.
Could Cause an Upset: Kodi Smit-McPhee.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- JESSICA CHASTAIN, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- OLIVIA COLMAN, The Lost Daughter
- PENÉLOPE CRUZ, Parallel Mothers
- NICOLE KIDMAN, Being the Ricardos
- KRISTEN STEWART, Spencer
Honestly folks, this could go any number of ways. Early on in Awards Season, we’d have looked for Kidman to repeat. This year happens to mark 20 years since her last win, and she’s been a reliable and beloved performer all that time. Colman has also become an academy favorite snagging three nods in just four years. Cruz does some of her best work in Parallel Mothers, though only a handful of performers (historically, two in this category) have ever won the golden statue for a non-English speaking role. Chastain has been a constant presence throughout Awards Season, and given that she’s on her third nomination without any wins, voters may feel she’s due. Couple that with her big win at SAG, and it looks like she might have the edge.
That leaves Stewart–an interesting case for sure. Her performance has generated mad hype since Spencer debuted on the festival circuit, though her absence at the SAG and BAFTA nominations would suggest audiences aren’t that keen on her work (she personally reminded us more of Daisy Duck than Princess Diana). Her nomination is a victory unto itself; analysts (us included) predicted her spot would go to either Jennifer Hudson or Lady Gaga. On the other hand, her “snubbed” narrative could also serve as a rallying cry. No performer has ever won Best Actress without also snagging a BAFTA nod, and for that matter, the last time someone won the award as the sole nomination for her film was Julianne Moore in Still Alice, and she didn’t face this kind of competition. That would appear to make a Stewart win statistically impossible. Whether or not that translates to real-world terms…well, we’ll have to watch and see.
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain.
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain.
Could Cause an Upset: Basically anyone else.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- JESSIE BUCKLEY, The Lost Daughter
- ARIANA DEBOSE, West Side Story
- JUDI DENCH, Belfast
- KIRSTEN DUNST, The Power of the Dog
- AUNJANUE ELLIS, King Richard
To paraphrase Hillary Clinton, Ariana DeBose is in, and she’s in to win. The queer triple threat made the most of her screen time in West Side Story, outshining all of her co-stars, save Rita Moreno. It also helps that she’s a person of color and openly queer. The Academy continues to take flack for its lack of recognition of LGBTQ and actors of color. That only adds to the enthusiasm around a potential DeBose win.
As for everyone else…well, they deliver the goods but don’t quite have the narrative. Dench has already won here before, and as in the Supporting Actor category, any love for Belfast will likely go to Kenneth Branagh. Ellis and Buckly have both emerged as beloved character actresses in the past few years, though we have a feeling that won’t generate enough momentum to propel them to the winner’s circle. The only possible upset case here would go to Dunst, the former child actress who has emerged as a charismatic and talented adult. Couple that with the popularity of Power of the Dog, and she could get a boost. That said, short of a cataclysm, we don’t see how she gets ahead of DeBose.
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose.
Who Should Win: Ariana DeBose.
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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- ENCANTO, Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
- FLEE, Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- LUCA, Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
- THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES, Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
- RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON, Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
Go figure that the folks over at Disney/Pixar dominate this category yet again. Encanto left us cold, but we appear to be in the minority on that one; the rest of the world is still talking about Bruno, and we assume that also includes members of the Academy. Disney also probably knows as much, and has put most of its campaign thrust behind the movie. That seems to count out Luca and Raya. Netflix has also pushed Mitchells quite hard, though in recent weeks, the streamer appears to have hedged all its bets around Power of the Dog in other categories since they have a better chance of winning. That leaves Flee, our personal favorite. We don’t see how a melancholy, indie film could possibly win over the hearts in a traditionally family-friendly category, especially since Flee also has a shot in the documentary category. Count on Encanto to win.
Who Will Win: Encanto.
Who Should Win: Flee.
DIRECTING
- BELFAST, Kenneth Branagh
- DRIVE MY CAR, Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- LICORICE PIZZA, Paul Thomas Anderson
- THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jane Campion
- WEST SIDE STORY, Steven Spielberg
For all the momentum Power of the Dog has built up with scoring its 12 nominations, its most assured win is here. Jane Campion has proven herself an intriguing director in her 30+ year career, and Power of the Dog sees her at her peak, well, power. She also has the power of the narrative: of all the pushes for more diversity in Hollywood, the campaign to feature more women directors has the most force behind it. A win for Campion gives the Academy bragging rights in that it will finally be able to say women have won the Director’s statuette two years running.
As for possible upsets…we don’t see one here. Hamaguchi’s win is in the nomination, and the lack of acting nominations for Drive My Car suggests the Academy isn’t that enthusiastic about it. Ditto Spielberg; we have a feeling it was his name more than his moviemaking that secured him a spot here over more deserving or logical nominees like Denis Villeneuve or Siân Heder. Anderson, while the real star of Licorice Pizza, probably has better chances of winning in the Screenplay category. That leaves Branagh, who the academy loves, and who has never won. He probably has the best chances outside of Campion…but we wouldn’t bet on him this time.
Who Will Win: Jane Campion.
Who Should Win: Jane Campion.
Could Cause an Upset: Kenneth Branagh.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
- CODA, Screenplay by Siân Heder
- DRIVE MY CAR, Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
- DUNE, Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
- THE LOST DAUGHTER, Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
- THE POWER OF THE DOG, Written by Jane Campion
As with the Best Picture category, we have a feeling that this will shape up as a Dog vs. Coda showdown. Here, we actually give Coda the edge, as it actually offers an opportunity to recognize Heder. Given that Drive My Car is a foreign language–and has nowhere near the buzz of Parasite (the only foreign language Best Picture winner in history)–we think the win is in the nomination. All buzzing aside, anyone who has read The Lost Daughter or Dune will attest to the difficulty and magnificence of their adaptations. Gyllenhaal takes an internalized, non-linear story and makes it accessible. Roth, Spaihts, and Villeneuve take one of the densest novels ever written, and make it easy to follow. They also reshaped Dune into more of an ensemble piece and gave the characters more definition. Still, we have a feeling the Academy will save their Dune love for the inevitable sequel.
Who Will Win: Coda.
Who Should Win: Dune.
Could Cause an Upset: The Power of the Dog.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
- BELFAST, Written by Kenneth Branagh
- DON’T LOOK UP, Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
- KING RICHARD, Written by Zach Baylin
- LICORICE PIZZA, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
- THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Frankly, we’re still wondering how a movie as maligned as Don’t Look Up ended up in this mix. Regardless, it doesn’t have a chance in Hell of winning. Neither does The Worst Person in the World, as it’s both foreign language, and didn’t score other key nominations. The Academy might reward Baylin for his Blacklist script to King Richard, though we have a feeling Will Smith’s win (see above) will suck all the other air for that movie out of the room. That leaves this a two-man race between Branagh’s Belfast and Anderson’s Pizza. Both movies have die-hard defenders, and both men are due. Anderson has scored a whopping 11 nominations without a win, while Branagh has eight. This is where things get tricky: Belfast scored more nominations, and would appear to have more momentum behind it. On the other hand, this is only Branagh’s second writing nomination, but the third for Anderson. This is another very close race, but for now, we give Branagh the edge. Barely.
Who Will Win: Belfast.
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza.
Could Cause an Upset: Licorice Pizza.
BEST PICTURE
- BELFAST, Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers
- CODA, Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers
- DON’T LOOK UP, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
- DRIVE MY CAR, Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
- DUNE, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers
- KING RICHARD, Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers
- LICORICE PIZZA, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
- NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers
- THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
- WEST SIDE STORY, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
Ten nominees here, and only about four have any chance of winning. Again, this could go any number of ways, so pay attention. Count Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, King Richard, Nightmare Alley, and Dune as falling by the wayside. Early on it looked like Power of the Dog had this sewn up, but recent developments cast doubt on that assurance. Coda‘s big wins at the PGA and SAG shows suggest it might have the lead for the moment, though never doubt the Academy’s soft spot for European period dramas. That could push Belfast into the winner’s circle. That leaves the dark horse of West Side Story…
Why would we give that film a shot? The Academy wants to love a crowd-pleaser. The Oscars have come under mounting scrutiny for their exclusion of major studio fare. Even when the Academy does nominate a major hit, (A Star is Born, Get Out, Mad Max: Fury Road) that seldom translates to a Best Picture or Best Director win.
The biggest crowd-pleaser in this batch is Dune, though a lack of a Best Director nomination suggests that the movie will win big in technical categories rather than the Big Five. West Side Story flopped on release, though Spielberg’s nomination and the movie’s overall seven nominations make us wonder if the movie is a crowd-pleaser of sorts: one that pleases Academy voters more than anyone else. Could the Academy’s need to look relevant translate (albeit oddly) into a West Side Story win?
Probably not…but stranger things have happened.
Will Win: Coda.
Should Win: Dune.
Could Cause an Upset: Belfast or West Side Story or The Power of the Dog.
But What About?
And as for the other, technical categories, we’ll spare the hand wringing and rattle off our predicted winners:
Cinematography: Dune
Editing: Dune
Animated Short: Robin Robin
Live-Action Short: The Long Goodbye
International Feature: Drive My Car (Possible Upset: The Worst Person in the World)
Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul (Possible Upset: Flee, which should win)
Documentary Short: Audible (Possible Upset: The Queen of Basketball)
Original Score: Dune
Original Song: “No Time To Die”
Best Sound: Dune
Best Costumes: Cruella (Possible Upset: Dune)
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Production Design: Dune
Visual Effects: Dune
Joshooeerr
Olivia Colman should win for her incredibly complex and nuanced performance in The Lost Daughter – a performance that leave’s Chastain’s clown act in the shade. There’s also the fact that The Eyes of Tammy Faye dishonestly whitewashes a vile grifter, pretending she was a wide-eyed innocent rather than deeply complicit in a decades-long fraud – after which she went on to marry yet another fraudster. Chastain does not deserve to be rewarded for cleaning up the act of a criminal for the sake of an Oscar.
BrokebackBob
Your prediction of Jessica Chastain is consistent with your preference that anyone in drag male or female will win.
SFMike
The Oscars have become entirely worthless at this point. You guys’ sure liked Dune, the half a story movie that was pretty and nothing else. West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up and Luca were the best pictures I saw last year but it’s all about politics now. The Eyes of Tammy Faye was a worthless vanity project that doesn’t deserve anything as the documentary it’s based on was 1000% better.