On the same day we’re waiting for California to decide the fate of same-sex marriage comes news from That Other Blue State: “Over the past month, support for gay marriage dropped seven percentage points while opposition rose by the same amount, according to Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg. Support for passage of the bill slipped 10 percentage points with independent voters (a key voting bloc), NYC voters, young people, women and African Americans during that same time period.” BUT: “Interestingly, however, 78 percent of poll participants said they agree with Paterson’s call for Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith to allow an up-or-down vote on the marriage bill with just 15 percent siding with Smith’s tactic of only letting the measure onto the floor if it is sure to pass.” [Elizabeth Benjamin/NYDN]
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NY State is not ready for gay marriage yet. It would not get past the legislature, and if it does it could be subject to an ballot amendment the same year.
My money is on New Jersey, as the next state gay marriage can come to, unless the NH governor has a change of heart.
There’s a process for a referendum in NY? I’m not familiar with any.
This is weird. But then again, Siena polls are always weird… I usually don’t trust them. But then again, the Quinnipiac NY poll released last week shows the exact same 46-46 split on marriage equality. However, that was an improvement from late last year.
Whatever the real numbers are, it looks like the population is pretty divided. And like the situation we’re facing in CA (fingers crossed for the next 42 minutes!!), we have plenty of work to do in NY to build majority support for marriage equality.
The problem with polling, particularly bad ones, is that they actually do sway public opinion.
Just ask the Field organization in California. Oh wait, they have a 93% prediction rate, so it couldn’t possibly have been that their gay marriage polls are…(gasp) WRONG?
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