‘Joker,’ ‘Judy,’ ‘Parasite’ and ‘Popes:’ Queerty predicts the Oscars!

• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman
• Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Much like Kathy Bates, two veteran performers/previous winners here get rewarded with their nomination. Hanks & Pacino are less competitors in the category than beloved Hollywood lions getting a hug from the industry. Hopkins gives his best performance in years in The Two Popes, though as a quiet drama, it’s not a film that Academy members clamor to watch. That leaves Pesci, who came out of retirement for his role, and Pitt, one of Hollywood’s most durable stars. Both already have Oscars, though Pitt’s is for producing. With that in mind, we think the Academy will be giving him his “due” as an actor.

Should Win: Joe Pesci

Will Win: Brad Pitt

• Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Renée Zellweger, Judy

Perhaps this year’s tightest category, just about any of these women have a shot at the gold. That said, Erivo wins just by nabbing a spot here over some much bigger names that got snubbed. Harriet, very good though it is, is not a movie that was widely seen. Ronan continues to prove she’s one of the best actresses of her generation with Little Women, but that works against her: like Margot Robbie in the Best Supporting Actress category, she has time to win later. Johansson gives her best performance to date in Marriage Story, though the love for that film will likely come in other categories (more on that in a moment). Her occasional tone-deaf declarations also don’t endear her to a good percentage of the Academy voting body. That leaves two uncanny performances: Theron as Megyn Kelly, and Zellweger as Judy Garland. Theron is astonishing in her performance—indistinguishable at times from the real thing—though in this case, the politics of the real-life Megyn Kelly will likely work against the actress playing her. Hollywood doesn’t want to seem as though it’s rewarding a right-wing blowhard. By contrast, everyone loves Judy Garland, and since Zellweger sings in the part, hers is the showiest performance here. It’s a tight race, but Renée has the edge.

Should Win: Charlize Theron

Will Win: Renee Zellweger

• Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker 
• Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

This category might seem like an open and shut case, but don’t be fooled: if there is an upset on Oscar night, it will almost certainly happen here. Pryce, an always-dependable character actor, finally gets a film role worthy of his gifts. Like Hopkins though, he’ll suffer from Academy voters not wanting to sit through a quiet, dialogue-driven drama. DiCaprio is fun in Once Upon a Time…, but he has to compete with the real star of that movie: writer/director Quentin Tarantino. If Hollywood takes home gold, it will go to him. Banderas finally gets his Oscar due with arguably his best performance, but he gives it in Spanish. The Academy rarely rewards non-English language performances, with only a handful of winners in its 92-year history (the last winner in this category was Roberto Benigni more than 20 years ago, and is now widely regarded as an Academy mistake). Joaquin Phoenix would seem to have this sewn up with his uninhibited performance in Joker. His own previous nods also fuel the “he’s due” sentiment. Working against him though: Joker’s nihilism, Trumpian politics, and lack of a coherent message. For that reason, we could see an upset from another Academy darling: Adam Driver. Driver doesn’t do much for us in terms of looks, appeal or charisma, but even we can’t deny his terrific performance in Marriage Story. The Academy might not be able to deny it either.

Should Win: Antonio Banderas

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Could Cause an Upset: Adam Driver

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

Tough call in this category, especially since Joker shouldn’t be here at all. We found Jojo Rabbit and The Two Popes both delightful, but don’t count on either taking the price. That said, adapting a chamber drama from stage to screen is an amazing task, and The Two Popes did so with grace. That leaves The Irishman—one of the films to rack up a lot of nominations this year—and Little Women, which has been adapted more than 10 times for film and TV already, though never in an overtly queer way. Steve Zaillian already has an Oscar and three other nominations, but if the Academy wants to reward The Irishman, it might do so here. On the other hand, with the allegations of sexism against the Academy this year, and given that writer Greta Gerwig also directed the film but didn’t get a nod in the directing category, she has the momentum. Besides, her loss in the screenplay for Ladybird category 2 years ago to Jordan Peele for Get Out was one of the biggest Sophie’s Choices in recent academy history. We think that gives her the edge.

Should Win: Little Women

Will Win: Little Women

• Knives Out
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

And on the subject of tough calls, we could make a case for just about any of the movies listed here. Knives Out is terrific fun, but given the lack of nominations in other categories, it probably won’t win out on the big night. 1917’s strength is in its direction more so than it’s writing. The other three could easily win out: the Academy loves Tarantino, and he has a better shot of winning here than in the director category. Parasite seems to keep accruing momentum as more and more people see the film and understand it’s magnificence. A win here would also canonize Bong Joon-Ho, who also directed Parasite, but is unlikely to win in that category. Writer Noah Baumbach has written about divorce before, though not as effectively in The Squid and the Whale. Call it a photo finish, but because only a handful of foreign-language films have ever won in this category, we foresee Marriage Story hitching Oscar.

Should Win: Parasite

Will Win: Marriage Story

• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Todd Phillips, Joker
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite

Another unpredictable category for the big night, Best Director has already attracted wild controversy for a lack of women. Frankly, we’d vote for just about anything with a pulse over Todd Phillips and the empty exploitation that is Joker. Oscar loves Scorsese, but The Irishman is hardly his best work, or the most impressive feat of the year. Ditto Tarantino. Bong Joon-Ho does some impressive work in Parasite, enough to make a case that he should win the here. That, and because Parasite seems to be peaking at the right time, makes this a tough call, but we still bet on Sam Mendes. He won his other Oscar 20 years ago and has done great work since, plus the one-shot approach to 1917 gives him more of a chance to show off his skills.

Should Win: Sam Mendes

Will Win: Sam Mendes