The latest wrinkle in the Prop. 8 whodunit blame game comes from FiveThirtyEight‘s adorkable Nate Silver, who breaks down the demographics on the California vote. “Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California’s black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly”, he claims.Â Instead, he says the numbers place the blame at the feet of older voters across all demographics:
The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that — and there’s no polite way to put this — the older voters aren’t going to be around for all that much longer, and they’ll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era. Everyone knew going in that Prop 8 was going to be a photo finish — California might be just progressive enough and 2008 might be just soon enough for the voters to affirm marriage equity. Or, it might fall just short, which is what happened. But two or four or six or eight years from now, it will get across the finish line.