The latest wrinkle in the Prop. 8 whodunit blame game comes from FiveThirtyEight‘s adorkable Nate Silver, who breaks down the demographics on the California vote. “Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California’s black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly”, he claims. Instead, he says the numbers place the blame at the feet of older voters across all demographics:
The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that — and there’s no polite way to put this — the older voters aren’t going to be around for all that much longer, and they’ll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era. Everyone knew going in that Prop 8 was going to be a photo finish — California might be just progressive enough and 2008 might be just soon enough for the voters to affirm marriage equity. Or, it might fall just short, which is what happened. But two or four or six or eight years from now, it will get across the finish line.
The Gay Numbers
Wait- so any analysis of demographics is now per se blaming? I can not help but think if we had done more message targetting to differrent demographics we would have won. These are natural tools of modern campaigning. I am just making a probably unread observation that it is one thing to ask which demographic, and another to blame. Also, he is right. This does bode well for us in the long run because what he writes is true across the board in many states if polling data is right.
fredo777
What are the odds that I paid him to say that?
Alan down in Florida
Now now fellow queers – there’s plenty of groups who hate us to spread the blame around on.
What I want to know is where our great outrage about the same thing happening in my home state, Florida, and Arizona where similar propositions/amendments were also passed? And where is the mobilization to take on the battle next in West Virginia?
ChristopherM
So really, it could be said that high turnout among old folks for one of their own could be to blame? Interesting twist of events.
Oh, and Nate Silver? Mmmmmm….smart is so sexy!
Finally!
The first rational and intelligent thing I’ve read on this subject. Now, please stop looking for someone to blame and get to work. Build bridges with other minority communities and stop calling names. I realize it’s more difficult than writing comments on a blog or showing up at a march, but it’s what will get us equal rights in the end.
Wolf
Bah.
It all comes down to one thing. RELIGION. the Demographics seperatly mean shite.
Older people are more Religious and apt to listen to the church and follow the way it wants them to vote.
African Americans are more Religious and apt to listen to the Church and follow the way it wants them to vote.
Latino’s are more Religious and apt to listen to the Church and follow the way it wants them to vote.
This whole “targeting of demographics is pure bull. It all comes down to religion.
Kyler
So does this mean the picket lines will be moved from Mormon churches to Retirement Communities?
I vote no more hate slinging, blame game. Instead we protest, march and spread the love that we wish to express with each other through marriage!
ChristopherM
@Kyler:
No, because old people voted for it, but the LDS paid for it. Without the LDS money, this would not have been an issue at all.
Wolf
@ChristopherM:
True Chris. And speaking about that it seems the LDS has had this plan on the table for along time. Interesting Story
http://www.abc4.com/content/news/top%20stories/story.aspx?content_id=4a8a2464-6cf3-45d1-a0bd-606f034bae33
ask ena
The national protest organized for Saturday is encouraging. What we really need to do is get civil marriage on our U.S. Constitution that will require recognition EVERY state.
Not sure what that has to do with old people…oh yeah: we will all be old one day, and have no rights to our partners’ social security, pensions, and any other marriage rights afforded at a federal level.
Inertia_90
@Wolf:
The most astute comment I’ve seen on here yet. There’s been talk of blacks, Latinos, Mormons and the elderly, but what people don’t seem to realise (or don’t want to realise) is that they all subscribe to the same ancient mythology.
Stoney
So the author is not taking into account all the people who were confused? Of course the religious will be a problem when it comes to gay rights, but the ones who voted “yes” thinking they were supporting gay marriage were the ones who screwed it up!
ask ena
no. 12
NOT TO MENTION everyone who voted yes because they were tricked into believing the outright lies used in the ‘yes on 8’ tv ads
ask ena
and we know who to BLAME for that…
Wolf
@Inertia_90:
Thnak you Inertia. MANY Bloggers and News Media people are over anyalizing the whole sitution. I don;t knwo why maybe they want to be the first to find a new angle but its causing too much confusion, and taking the focus off the true answer which is Religous Bigotry and Pontification caused Prop 8’s passing.
Its as simple as that.
mark
Hey…ya needed a BRAIN TRUST to let ya know it’s old farts voting against us???
well DUH!
CondeNasty
It makes sense that it is a generational thing.
Darth Paul
Old people definitely vote more than other age groups; and the dogmatic bigots certainly fueled that fire.
Per No. 5’s accurate comment, the gay activists need to come out of their cozy, affluent, and let’s face it- white shell and start talking constructively w/non-religiously linked groups if they expect any sort of headway here. Bigoted kneejerk attacks (even against churches) are counterproductive, stupid, and mirror the dogmatic reactionaries from whom we claim to differ so greatly.
FundamentallyFlawed
You know who voted overwhelmingly for Prop 8?
Dumb people.
(Click my URL if you need proof.)
But seriously: It does give me hope to know that my college students are OUTRAGED over this, and their friends who aren’t yet 18 were incensed that they couldn’t cast a “no” vote. I know the next generation will get this right. But it infuriates and exhausts me to think of having to spend another few years and another $XX million to wage this battle again when we should have won it this time around.
Vinman
@ask ena: Young gays do not think about the future, but I do(of course I’m just young at heart) My partner and I have been together for 28 years. You can pay lawyers to draw up contracts and make your families know your wishes. But No Tax breaks for us. No social security for us. No pension plans for us. No fairness for us because we are Fags!
RichardR
@Wolf: So glad that we’re beginning to blog that “religion” is the true scapegoat. But we need to be fair: many religious folks don’t rely on their “sacred” texts the way James Dobson, et al, do. Here in the USA, a strict, literal interpretation of the Bible, is what most of our “enemies” use to justify their bigotry. Take that out of the debate and there’s no debate.
And I think we need to realize that it’s not about marriage. Not about adoption or fostering. Not about military service or employment rights or civil rights. It’s about gay.
Distingué Traces
“…and they’re dying, which is some comfort.” — Dan Savage on the Colbert Report
froggyola
Hmmmmm. Is he suggesting we don’t do anything about this injustice until a percentage of our opponanats die? I am not willing to wait for that. There is much work to be done NOW. Rallies are very important and draw attention to this miscarriage of justice. I for one will not be silent., and you gays that want to remain silent because you think it makes us look better to people who hate us, need to get the hell out of the way and let the BRAVE gays lead you. A synical attitude is just an excuse for not helping. We must DEMAND these civil rights not wait for Christian hate-mongers to GIVE it to us.
chase
Well, it could also mean that the high turnout of old african-american and older latino voters passed prop 8. While a lot of older whites vote, maybe older blacks and latinos have stayed away in the past for a variety of issues like immigration status or lack of enthusiasm.
Isaac
Nicer Dan Savage/Nate Silver:
“Please, Grandma, go home to Jesus so I can have my gay marriage.”
RainaWeather
wow, he’s a genius.
Patty Hose
Notice the 10%+ points closer than eight years ago? Maybe Nate Silver can work some statistical magic about how many oldsters who voted in 2000 were not around to vote this year? Even though my eighty-something parents voted ‘no’ on H8, the vast majority of elderly voters cast their ballots as ‘yes’. Look at how much attitudes about segregation in the Old South changed as that older, white, segregationist generation kicked the bucket. Our time is coming, sooner than later.