The Equation That Will Determine When Enough Old Mainers Will Die to OK Marriage

algebra equation on blackboard 1

Does one of you possess Nate Silver levels of math wizardry? Because we’d like to employ you in this little equation about when enough of Maine’s older voters, who disproportionately voted Yes On 1, will stop casting ballots (read: die) and let freedom ring.

Google software engineer and blogger Frank Pape breaks down all the necessary information to compute the question, which hinges on old people being more conservative, and young people being more accepting of the Gs. From birth and death rates to demographic breakdowns of who voted which way on Question 1, Pape wants to know what year it will be when everything evens out enough that a ballot measure to restore marriage will work out.

Can someone please crunch the numbers?