The Oscars are broadcast Sunday night, and if you have money riding on this – or if your reputation as the reigning movie queen of your social circle is at stake – then you might want to pay close attention to the predictions of Queerty’s Mark S. King. (Hint: This may be the winningest year ever for people of color.)
We have come to play, so we’re bringing you predictions in every one of the 24 categories presented during the show (those minor awards can rack up major points for you).
Of course, anything can happen, and that’s what makes this such an exciting night. Who could have predicted that Brokeback Mountain would lose for Best Picture? The winner that year was Crash. Yeah, we forgot all about that flick, too. So if our predictions bomb worse than Zoolander 2, well, then that’s show biz, folks.
So without further ado, the envelope, please:
How about we take this to the next level?
Our newsletter is like a refreshing cocktail (or mocktail) of LGBTQ+ entertainment and pop culture, served up with a side of eye-candy.
BEST PICTURE: La La Land
Though Moonlight has been coming on strong in the Oscar horse race during the last months of the campaign, all roads lead to La La Land, the Hollywood love letter that threw Moulin Rouge and Singing in the Rain into a blender and delighted voters throughout awards season. Of course, if there is a strong #OscarsSoWhite backlash from last year, Moonlight might stand a chance.
BEST ACTRESS: Emma Stone
This category got a little crazy this year, with early trophies going to Natalie Portman for Jackie, and later awards going to Isabelle Huppert for the decidedly kinky Elle. But Emma Stone has consistently cleaned up and should be holding the statue on Sunday night for her performance in La La Land.
BEST ACTOR: Denzel Washington
This is an example of social politics derailing a perfect campaign. Casey Affleck’s tortured soul in Manchester by the Sea was the critics darling through most of the year – until reports of sexual misdeeds in his past surfaced again. Voters began turning to Denzel Washington for his towering performance in (and direction of) the acclaimed Fences.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Viola Davis
Nobody cries on screen better, and her work in Fences is a career high among many standout performances. This is one of several sure things.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali
A sure bet. His performance as the empathetic surrogate father (and drug dealer) of a young gay boy in Moonlight has won him trophies across the board.
DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Chazelle has been raking in kudos for his spirited direction of La La Land. Yes, plenty of people have reservations about the film (Boring! It drags in the middle!) but everyone is rewarding Chazelle’s skills.
ANIMATED FEATURE: Zootopia
In a so-so field this year, Zootopia has the lock.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: O.J.: Made in America
The O.J. Simpson mythology not only dominated television awards season with The People vs. OJ Simpson, it looks like Oscar is ready to revisit the debacle as well.
AND ALL THE REST
Cinematography
La La Land
Costume Design
La La Land (but Jackie could pull an upset)
Documentary Short
Extremis (with Joe’s Violin making it a close race)
Film Editing
La La Land (take note: when in doubt, give minor awards to your Best Picture pick)
Foreign Language Film
Toni Erdmann, Germany
Makeup and Hairstyling
Star Trek Beyond
Original Score
La La Land
Original Song
“City of Stars,” La La Land
Production Design
La La Land
Animated Short Film
Piper
Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Interieurs (This is a very close race with Timecode)
Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge (Arrival is a close second, but sound editors love war movies)
Sound Mixing
La La Land
Visual Effects
Rogue One: A. Star Wars Story
Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea, written by Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester may only win in this category, which gives it an edge, but La La Land could steal it)
dragonboi
La La Land and Moonlight are such over rated movies. Saw then once and would never watch again. Hacksaw Ridge is the best film of 2016 and I have seen it 8 times and cry every time.
BigWill
For once, this year I have seen all the movies nominated for Best Picture except Hacksaw Ridge. I’d have voted for Manchester by the Sea until I saw Lion last week; I know it’s not going to win, but it would be my pick.
I liked Moonlight because it’s a story we haven’t seen before, and I liked parts of La La Land, though I thought Hell or High Water was better than both. I do think Emma Stone is deserving of an Oscar for La La Land; she turns in a great performance. If I were a voter, I’d pick Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water. And I’d still pick Casey Affeck over Denzel—he did an incredible job.
It drives me bonkers when lead performances, such as Catherine Zeta Jones’ in Chicago and this year Viola Davis for Fences, are nominated in the supporting category to ensure a better chance of winning. (That’s not to detract from Davis; she’s wonderful, but it’s a lead role not supporting.)
Of all the Best Pic nominees, I didn’t dislike any of them. Arrival is also good (not necessarily Oscar- Worthy, but hey, was The Kings Speech or Crash?). Hidden Figures is another real story that I knew nothing about, however, it was done like a Lifetime movie, and its inclusion as a Best Picture nominee strikes me as undeserving; Octavia Spencer is always good, but there’s nothing exceptional about her performance in it.
Anyway, my 2¢.
Herman75
I agree MBTS is quite a movie and would have no problem if it wins and agree Casey Affleck should win. But with the agendas at play, neither will. I would have nominated Ashton Sanders for supporting actor for Moonlight which is a great flick. I’ll see it again.
BigWill
Re: Moonlight, I thought André Holland was very good in it; I don’t follow these things closely, but he seemed to not get much notice. I’d have put him up for Best Supporting Actor.
bobbyjoe
For those trying to win an Oscar pool, ignore their advice above about Documentary Short. Extremis and Joe’s Violin are probably the two least likely to win. Bet on The White Helmets. Particularly in the Trump era, the academy will want one of the three documentary shorts about Syria to win, and White Helmets is the favored of the three.
Blackceo
Well Moonlight won and deservedly so over La La Land. What will be interesting now is to see the think pieces on the win from non Black folk (particularly non Black gays) trying to claim this as a “win” for the community in which they often exclude Black gays. Yeah no. This film wasn’t for y’all. So some words of advice. Don’t write about Moonlight and gloss over its Blackness.