long shot

Minnesota! We’re Doomed.

It’s all hands-on-deck time in Minnesota! The House is voting on a proposed anti-gay marriage law, and LGBT groups have called an emergency rally at 10am at the Capitol.

If it passes the House, it goes to voters in 2012. Surveys show a majority of Minnesotans oppose the marriage ban, but surveys don’t vote; people do. And people are crazy! So there’s really no telling what’ll happen if the law passes the House.

So, does Outfront Minnesota have any chance of stopping the ban? Wellllll … maybe. If you cross your fingers and knock on wood really really hard. Nothing’s impossible!

The House is controlled by Republicans, so our chances aren’t great. But some Republicans have broken ranks: Tim Kelley and John Kriesel voted no when the bill was in the Rules Committee, so they might be able to persuade their colleagues to join them. They might also be the King of France.

But who knows, a little constituent pressure couldn’t hurt. If you live in Minnesota, here’s the Representatives who need to hear from you:

Albert Lea – Rep. Rich Murray (27A) 651-296-8216
Apple Valley – Rep. Patti Fritz (26B) 651-296-8237
Blaine – Rep. Tim Sanders (51A) 651-296-4226
Champlin – Rep. Denise Dittrich (47A) 651-296-5513
Eden Prarie – Rep. Jenifer Loon (42B) 651-296-7449
Hastings – Rep. Denny McNamara (57B) 651-296-3135
Mankato – Rep. Rod Hamilton (22B) 651-296-5373
Mound – Rep. Steve Smith (33A) 651-296-9188
Saint Cloud – Rep. King Banaian (15B) 651-296-6612
Woodbury – Rep. Andrea Kieffer (56B) 651-296-1147
The Iron Range – Rep. David Dill (06A) 651-296-2190

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  • Elloreigh

    The same thing will happen that has happened in every other state that has put the marriage question on the ballot. It will pass, probably easily. (And if not, Arizona is a good example of “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again”).

    As the article says, surveys don’t vote. The people who are interested in preventing same-sex couples from legally marrying are far more motivated and therefore likely to vote. There are no doubt plenty of people saying they oppose the amendment who are simply too apathetic to vote when the time actually comes.

    Don’t get me wrong – I hope it fails, and the worse it fails, the better. But I’m also a realist. The poll hurts us more than helps us, as it will inspire complacency among some, while lighting a fire under our very motivated, very well organized, and very well funded opposition.

    So the article title is appropriate, I feel. Equal marriage is indeed doomed in Minnesota if this makes it onto the ballot, and that appears pretty likely to happened.

    One last note: No state that has passed an anti-gay marriage amendment has even come close to repealing it, and none appear poised to do so either.

  • Darrell

    @Elloreigh: While you are indeed correct about the bans that have been passed, one must take into account that each year, support for the bans fell significantly as time passed. The last presidential election cycle, 2008, saw California pass theirs by only 52% and deep-red Arizona by only 56%. The only reason I think California passed their amendment was because same-sex marriage was actually legal and it created a sense of “emergency” among its citizens.

    That being said, Minnesota is a blue-leaning state full of white people mostly of German decent who are known to be more supportive of same-sex marriage. I believe that if it does go to the ballot, with some really strong campaigning, the amendment can be defeated. You are right about the rabid opposition though, which will require much strength to fend off. Also, DFLers will likely take back control of the legislature in 2012 and it is actually pretty easy to put an amendment on the ballot in Minnesota. If it does pass by a small margin I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeal on the ballot in 2016 or 2020.

  • mjcc1987

    I believe most of the progress we have made will be wiped out soon. The right wing for the moment has the upper hand regardless of what “majority” or polls say. It will take another 10 years to undo what is happening now and SCOTUS will not support LGBT rights.

  • butbut

    but but but but Minnesota is the modern day san francisco…but but but Minnesota puts NYC to shame…but but but all the older gays are retiring in Minnesota and not palm springs

  • Armand

    The state of Minnesota will now vote in 2012 on marriage.

    As a homosexual man, does it affect me?


  • JohnMalk

    I live in Iowa and most of my family lives in Minnesota. Knowing the demographics of Minnesota and the rapidly changing attitudes toward same-sex marriage (according to multiple polls) I really think it’s 50-50 whether this thing passes or not. I would have no idea how to bet if someone asked me to put money down on whether this passes.

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