Americans think more than one in five people are gay, and while that’s a great thought, it’s far from the truth, according to a new Gallup poll.
The poll reveals that Americans “greatly overestimate” the number of gays in the U.S. Though latest estimates put the LGBT population at about 3.8%, Americans on average put that number at 23%.
According to Gallup Daily tracking — an ongoing study since 2012 — 3.8% of 50,000 adults interviewed during the first four months of 2015 identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender. Since 2002, however, Americans have believed that at least 21% of the population is LGBT.
While their opinions on the number of gays have more or less stayed the same, Americans’ acceptance has increased dramatically:
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Whereas 38% of Americans said gay and lesbian relations were morally acceptable in 2002, that number has risen to 63% today. And while 35% of Americans favored legalized same-sex marriage in 1999, 60% favor it today.
That’s cute and all, but it kind of begs the question, if Americans think there are so many gays hanging around, why would they be satisfied with denying such a large percentage of the population equal rights? I mean, call me crazy, but 23% — while a speculative number — is a really large chunk, especially when you consider that 13.8% of Americans are black and 17.7% are Hispanic or Latino.
Of course, numbers shouldn’t matter when it comes to fair protection under the law, so maybe America just has really shitty gaydar and we’ll just leave it at that.
Take a look at some of the numbers from Gallup’s poll below:
Les Fabian Brathwaite — lousy with gay since 1985.
DistingueTraces
A third of Americans believe that more than a quarter of Americans are gay.
I don’t really have a comment, I’m just disbelievingly reiterating it.
Bauhaus
@LES FABIAN BRATHWAITE:
“if Americans think there are so many gays hanging around, why would they be satisfied with denying such a large percentage of the population equal rights?”
Well, the right-wing and clergy are masters at demonizing us. Have been for decades. They’ve smeared, denigrated, lied about us, and used us as a scape-goat. It worked, masterfully. That is, until we started coming out individually and acting politically en masse.
onthemark
@Bauhaus: The really odd thing is that Republicans guess 19% and Democrats guess higher at 25%.
But, the younger age groups guess much higher (28% say age 18-29) than the older age groups (20% say age 65+).
WTF. I bet most of us would have predicted the other way around in both cases. Seems like there must be a pattern here, but what is it?
IvanPH
> U.S. Though latest estimates put the LGBT population at about 3.8%
Those are the openly gay. That would be a lot higher if you include the closeted ones. So those who estimated the gay population to be 25% must be including the closet cases in their estimation. Though that 25% is still ridiculously high.
Hermes3X
The Gallup poll on the number of GLBT is greatly misleading.
The poll purports to estimate the “percent of Gay and Lesbians in the US” under the guise that most people are way off in their predictions. (33% percent of people say that over a quarter of people are Gay or Lesbian -this statistic would have to include obvious bogus answers like 80% or 100%, or people who didn’t understand the question.)
The fact is they were responding to a poll, the better question is how well do people understand statistics and percentages. A similar question, such as ‘how many people die of cancer’, might offer just as wide a margin of ‘wrong’ answers. Suggesting that the need to answer, or give the correct answer, as if this were a game-show quiz, would mitigate the answer. So an answer like 26%, might seem like a safe bet when the respondent hasn’t got a clue. The other fact that could largely effect the result is the interpretation of the question as a popularity contest, that is, by giving a higher percentage, the respondent is thinking less about the actual percent of G&L people that they believe exist, but offering a kind of ‘vote of confidence’ to gay people. Then there is the blindingly obvious question of how did the respondents interpret or define the terms Gay or Lesbian. Would a single act of homosexual attraction or relation, even as a child, constitute “are homosexual” in the mind of the respondent who really just wants the get done with the questioning and isn’t listening to what is being asked. Then there is the politically motivated answer, someone who intentionally wants to skew the study, giving a larger number to scare the public or persuade them in favor of gay rights.
Then Gallup relate this piece of data to totally unrelated datum, namely a Gallup poll asking, “Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender?” with 3.8% being the most recent result. They present this as the ‘actual’ number of GL people, when in fact it is the number of people who ‘admit to being gay or lesbian’. We may never know the true number.
The reason these studies don’t relate is because they ask two different questions.
If the respondents in the first study were asked “Just your best guess, what percent of men in the United States today would you say WOULD ADMIT IN A PHONE INTERVIEW, that they are homosexual or gay.” I am sure that you would get a much smaller number, much closer to the 3.8% number.
Also, the problem with the 3.8% “personally identify” poll, is this is an issue that is still politically charged. Every day in the news we hear of gay people who have had their homes graffitied with gay slurs or of gay people attacked in public, or losing housing and jobs. By admitting you are gay to a stranger on the phone, you might easily be exposing yourself to an attack. I am a gay, and have worked tirelessly for gay causes, but if I got a cold call asking me to admit I was gay, I wouldn’t hang up, I would lie.
I would like to see a comparison poll conducted with another equally charged question.
For the “personally identify” respondents Gallup should ask “Do you, personally, use marijuana either recreational or for medicinal purposes”.
And for the perception study ask “Just your best guess, what percent of people in the United States today would you say actively use marijuana.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if you found an equally wide margin of ‘perception’, and a disturbingly low number of people who admit that they use marijuana.
Shame on Gallup poll for proffering this skewed statistic in such a salacious manner.
onthemark
We seem to be like an undermanned, ancient Greek army who were good at faking out the Persians (or whoever) into thinking there are way more of us than we really are.
But I doubt any of us PLANNED it that way?
Paco
It depends if you are counting gays only or those that fall under the LGBT umbrella. I think if you factor in the “closeted” bisexuals that are currently in heterosexual relationships, the 23% guesstimate doesn’t really look that unrealistic. As gays and lesbians gain more social acceptance, I think we will see a surge in openly identifying bisexuals in the future that will represent the majority of our community.
Londale Foster
It gets worse with all the Christians in this Country. Running around judging everyone for their sins. Divorce is a sin but they seem to forget that part of the Bible…How Convient for them…They are a bunch of cowards. They hide behind the Bible to justify their hatred for others. Just as Isis uses the Karan to justify their hatred toward others… Hate is Hate and u can dress it up all u want but it is still
Hermes3X
@Paco: The Gallop poll specifically did NOT ask about bi-sexual for the %23 guesstimate, though the respondents may have interpreted it that way.
Dale Landefeld
well…those Americans are so full of themselves and the bible…..get real America…wherever you live……read more science…..You can do it….but probably will not….Can we say impervious bubble?
Paco
@Hermes3X: that was my guess as well. When a guy, who was seen as heterosexual, is found to also like other men, people from both sides of the fence automatically assume they are just gay. And how many guys think they are gay if they are attracted to another guy, even though they are still very much attracted to the opposite sex? I think perceptions about that may have skewed the results.
This article seemed to start off only mentioning gays and then somehow ended up at LGBT, so it was a bit confusing.
AtticusBennett
it’s hard to gauge – as the numbers will only count those who ADMIT TO BEING LGBT.
closet cases, even in an anonymous survey, won’t list themselves as gay.
the numbers are always going to be skewed. when i graduated high school i was one of THREE openly-LGBT students in my year. in the nearly 14 years since graduation, 20 more have come out. TWENTY.
BJ McFrisky
More proof that women can be bisexual at the flip of a switch.
onthemark
@AtticusBennett: These polls aren’t asking people if they are gay themselves.
These polls ask STRAIGHT people how many gays they think exist. Totally different thing.
onthemark
@BJ McFrisky: Really, BJ? You couldn’t have just waited for “jason” to say that?
Ditamo
@onthemark: Well I think younger people know more people that come out as LGBT in middle-school, high-school and college, so they see them as probably being a bigger percentage than what it actually is. While older people might of not been exposed to it as much. People are coming out younger and younger, plus many of the closeted older adults are coming out as well, also bisexuality is a thing, although in the US people think bisexuality is a myth…which it isn’t, it’s a real thing, so maybe the ~20% might be correct.
alterego1980
@onthemark: I love the Greek/Spartan reference. I think that LGBT’s ability to consolidate a message of equality makes a big difference. Equality for gays now is talked about all the time (squeky wheel gets the grease?). Plus, I think it has lots to do with how there are so many artistic gays in the world (Hollywood in particular). America is so media driven that the level of LGBT awareness is through the roof.
onthemark
@Ditamo: That makes some sense, although it still leaves the question of why are the most pro-gay people guessing much LESS accurately than others. Everyone is guessing so badly, however, that maybe it hardly matters who’s guessing the most badly!
By contrast, the postgrads guess more accurately, which by itself seems unsurprising. And they are still off by a factor of over 400% (they guess 15% versus the real 3.8%).
Transiteer
Why are Americans, generally speaking, so dumb? The also believe that the Bible is a true story, and host of other nonsense.
Hermes
Honestly – the key to the entire thing is the word “IDENTIFY” — Most Americans when asked how many people are gay are not answering how many people they think “self-identify” as gay, but rather how many people they think like sex with other members of the same sex – generally focusing on males. If you use that as the definition, you actually AT LEAST split the difference between the two numbers. The latest comprehensive study (study that looked at behavior rather than identification) found that 12.8% of males regularly engaged in same sex sexual activity, but 3.6 (I think, that number is hazier) identify as gay. The others, many of whom had relationships with their male partners going back years and years – identified as straight (not bi – STRAIGHT) and often were fully engaged in the straight world. NO ONE knew that they were homosexually inclined except themselves and the folk who studied them (Pathela and others; Discordance between sexual behavior and self-reported sexual identity; Annals of Internal Medicine; September 2006). It is not at ALL unreasonable to think several percent more than that not only proclaim themselves straight but spend more energy hiding their interest in other same sex partners. I have personally known FAR more men who by preference sleep with other men and are “on the downlow” than I do openly gay men. My partner and I are out – as a matter of political importance – we’ve been together well over 20 years — but we know a lot of guys who are with men, but privately. I have friends from H/S who are still together to this day – but both are married – and in at least one case, haven’t slept with their wives since the kids were born – the kids are now grown. In that particular case the wife is content with that – she doesn’t know her husband is sleeping with his best friend (I think I am the only person other than the two of them that know) but she has told me she is lucky because “he doesn’t have any sex drive.”
The common people’s eyeball theory may be more accurate, not only here, but globally, in terms of real preference as opposed to apparent or even acted upon preference, than we are giving them credit for. I honestly think most of the male gay community that is out were boys who were not all that popular in H/S and Jr. High – and were sometimes bullied (which is wrong) and because of that they only know others at a more … well, less deep level. I played sports and graduated most popular male in my class (according to class vote) – I was also out – even then, a long time ago – and as a result I got a lot of confiding and a huge number of offers. I think men who are willing to have sex with men, or WANT to have sex with men, far, far, far outnumber those who will say they are gay.
Go ahead and flame on as desired, but that is my honest assessment, based on several decades of experience.
Hermes
Paco
@Hermes: I wonder how many of those straight guys on the down low would identify as bisexual if the stigma of male on male sex was no longer present in society, and gays and straights stopped trying to push them under the gay label when they finally do decide to be open about their preferences. Even though there is a percentage of gay men that do prefer those guys stay with the straight identity to satisfy fantasies of having sex with straight guys.
jwtraveler
@IvanPH: And it seems that most Queerty readers think that 3.8% of Americans are openly gay and the other 96.2% are closet cases.
Mikah
When will people understand that population statistics for Gay people will not be accurate anytime soon?There are more Gay/Bi people in the closet than there are out of the closet.How can you get even a slightly accurate estimate of the Gay community when a lot people are dishonest about their sexuality due to the homophobic climate?
blackberry finn
@Transiteer: If Americans were so dumb, I don’t suppose they would have spearheaded the postwar gay rights movement. You know, that movement you piggy-backed on?
BJ McFrisky
@Transiteer: We “dumb” Americans are the reason you don’t speak German or Japanese today.
You’re welcome.
Sluggo2007
There are a lot of people out there that don’t want you to know what they really are. I see many gay/bi men on the street. The numbers portrayed in this article don’t add up.
Giancarlo85
@BJ McFrisky: Lulz. You love historical revisionism. I think the Russians are more the reason the Germans were defeated. If Hitler didn’t get bogged down in Russia and stuck to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, there was a good chance the war would have ended up in a stalemate, but we know history didn’t work out that way. Millions of Russians died fighting Germany head on… and Britain was stoutly defending and inflicting heavy losses onto the Luftwaffe. Years before the Americans really took action.
You see Transiteer… these American Exceptionalist idiots think they really are the best country in the world and are responsible for everything good.
@blackberry finn: Yet in European countries, equality is far more advanced than it is in America. When did the Netherlands get same sex marriage? My point is proven.
Americans never spearheaded the gay rights movement Post-war, especially when other countries were far ahead of America and by the 1990s came rolling along, this was evident.
Realitycheck
If they can estimate 3.8% LGTB, I can say for experience, there are at least 2 people
in the closet for each one that is out, the real number of LGTB in the USA is probably closer to 10%.
On another note, I also suspect that the “it’s a choice” argument comes from the closet gay and even more so from Bi that have chosen straight because it is more easy and convenient, and in so doing they have created the wrong impression that gay can
choose.