Five-Thirty-Eight’s Nate Silver, our secret dork boyfriend who correctly guessed the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, applies his “secret sauce” of algorithms and statistical analysis to that most pressing of questions: Who’s going to win the Oscar this year? And the winners are?
Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor, Taraji P. Henson will get Best Supporting Actress, Mickey Rourke and Kate Winslet will win the lead actor categories and the Best Picture will be– Slumdog Millionaire. Milk-fanatics, don’t cry. Silver explains:
“Slumdog Millionaire won all three awards associated with Oscar success: the Directors Guild Award, the Golden Globe, and the bafta. It’s also a serious film, which the Academy favors. If there’s an upset (which would be a shocker), it will be Milk; guilt over Prop 8 and the Brokeback snub of ’06 could split the vote, with Boyle getting Director and Milk getting Picture. “
So, there you go: Thanks to the power of modern science, your Sunday night is free– oh wait– Hugh Jackman’s hosting. Guess you’re screwed anyway.