Five-Thirty-Eight’s Nate Silver, our secret dork boyfriend who correctly guessed the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, applies his “secret sauce” of algorithms and statistical analysis to that most pressing of questions: Who’s going to win the Oscar this year? And the winners are?
Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor, Taraji P. Henson will get Best Supporting Actress, Mickey Rourke and Kate Winslet will win the lead actor categories and the Best Picture will be– Slumdog Millionaire. Milk-fanatics, don’t cry. Silver explains:
“Slumdog Millionaire won all three awards associated with Oscar success: the Directors Guild Award, the Golden Globe, and the bafta. It’s also a serious film, which the Academy favors. If there’s an upset (which would be a shocker), it will be Milk; guilt over Prop 8 and the Brokeback snub of ’06 could split the vote, with Boyle getting Director and Milk getting Picture. “
So, there you go: Thanks to the power of modern science, your Sunday night is free– oh wait– Hugh Jackman’s hosting. Guess you’re screwed anyway.
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Jock
I really want to see Sean Penn win Best Actor for Milk. That was an outstanding performance.
Ryan
Penn was great in Milk, but not better than Rourke in The Wrestler. Honestly, it’s not even close. But would it surprise me if Penn wins? Not at all. The Oscars suck – hell, they can’t even get the nominations right (where’s Dark Knight? Christopher Nolan’s Best Director Nom? Where’s Kate Winslet in Rev Road?)
Brendan
… I just can’t believe that Taraji Henson will win Best Supporting Actress.