miscalculation

More and more polls suggest Trump’s decision to skip last week’s debate was a major misstep

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Donald Trump mugshot
Donald Trump (Photo: Fulton County Sheriff’s Office)

Donald Trump didn’t think he would benefit from attending last week’s debate, given his sizable lead over the other GOP candidates.

But the post-debate polls and buzz show that might’ve been a major misstep.

As it turns out, nearly 13 million people watched the event, meaning there was significant interest in the race without Trump’s presence. While that number is far below the 24 million people who tuned into Trump’s first presidential debate in August 2015, it outpaced a January 2016 debate he skipped. (It’s also worth noting that far fewer people watch live TV than they did eight years ago, making last week’s viewership numbers even more impressive.)

To counter-program the affair, Trump sat down for an online interview with Tucker Carlson, which generated little buzz. X, the social media company formerly known as Twitter, claims Carlson’s interview garnered 236.7 million views, but that’s not a reliable figure. A “view” counts how many times people scrolled past Carlson’s show in their feeds–not how many actually stopped and watched it.

Obsessed with media coverage, Trump must notice the attention that entrepreneur and 9/11 conspiracy theorist Vivek Ramaswamy is garnering in the debate’s aftermath. He’s been a ubiquitous presence on cable news over the last week, and is even involved in his own culture war: Eminem recently told him to stop rapping his songs.

Now, Ramaswamy is the one being painted as an anti-establishment martyr. There are already think-pieces in the New York Times explaining his unorthodox appeal. (Hint: He’s very, very annoying, and that’s the point!)

Ramaswamy’s campaign says he raised $450,000 last Wednesday night alone. He’s also surged to third place in recent polls, and his numbers are only growing.

But perhaps no candidate benefitted more from last week’s debate than Nikki Haley, who was previously running on the sordid and desperate message that Joe Biden will die in office. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio is telling Republican donors the former South Carolina governor is “surging” in Iowa, and is now in a virtual second-place tie with Ron “Don’t Say Gay” DeSantis.

According to an Emerson College polling survey, Haley saw the largest increase among Republican candidates following last week’s debate, jumping from 2% to 7%. Among voters 50 and older, her support increased from 2% to 9%, while Trump’s dropped from 56% to 49%.

Team Trump now views Haley and Ramaswamy on the same plane as DeSantis, Axios reports. With that in mind, Haley v. Ramaswamy is the primary’s new hot-button feud. She’s recently called the ex-pharmaceutical exec “childish” and “pathetic.”

Meanwhile, Trump continues to be consumed with his myriad of legal entanglements. On Tuesday, New Hampshire’s Attorney General’s office said it’s “carefully reviewing” arguments that could leave the disgraced ex-president off the ballot.

We also found out this week that Trump’s federal trial for attempting to overturn the 2020 election will begin on March 4, 2024–one day before Super Tuesday. That’s not exactly a great closing message.

Fox News’ spin on Trump’s four indictments is getting increasingly desperate… and quite racist.

Trump, of course, still leads the Republican field with an average of 49% of the potential vote. But that number is down considerably from the 53.4% he enjoyed at the start of this month.

For the first time in eight years, Trump is starting to lose his grip on the Republican field. That surely isn’t sitting well with him, and may even draw him back to the debate stage. If it doesn’t conflict with any of his scheduled court appearances, that is.

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