Mary Trump just hit her crazy Uncle Donald where it hurts the most: crowd size.
The one-term, twice-impeached, quadruply-indicted ex-president won the New Hampshire primary this week with 176,392 votes, or 54% of the electorate. Meanwhile, is last remaining opponent, Nikki Haley, won 140,288 votes, or 43% of the electorate.
Though technically the victor, a mere 11-point/36,104 vote difference is really not that impressive, especially for someone with as much name recognition, money, and institutional support as Trump.
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(We should also note that Haley won 60% of independent voters, compared to Trump’s 38%, which could spell doom for him should advance to the general election.)
Also not impressive was how many people actually turned out to hear his victory speech in the Granite State. As usual, Trump bragged about how many supporters were there, but reports from people on the ground told a much different story.
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According to MSNBC contributor John Heilemann, the venue could hold up to 10,000 spectators, but there were “empty seats all over the place.” He estimated the it was “less than half filled” and that even on the ground level, closest to the stage, “you could see just seat after seat after seat, with no one in it.”
In the latest installment of her Substack newsletter, Mary talks at length about about her crazy uncle’s shrinking crowd sizes and the “embarrassing number of empty seats” at Tuesday night’s rally.
Correction: She doesn’t just talk about it. She has video to prove it.
The footage shows Trump talking before a half-empty auditorium with entire sections blacked out to make the room appear less sparse. Mary says this likely killed her uncle, since crowd size, particularly small crowd side, has “always been a trigger for Donald.”
“The issue of crowd size may seem trivial, but not if you know Donald,” she writes. “Crowd size is one of the key ways Donald measures success.”
C-SPAN footage also showed an empty auditorium.
“Small turnout, muted responses, and louder hecklers challenge him and stress him in a way few other things can,” Mary adds. “Huge crowds, and their violent energy, motivate him. They were a crutch. Without them, he loses an important method of deploying his message, and momentum.”
One only needs to look at the ex-president’s response to the historically low turnout at his inauguration in January 2017 as an example of what she’s talking about.
Trump was so bothered by it that he had then-White House press secretary Sean Spicer hold a special press conference to lie and say it was “the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period, both in person and around the globe!”
“The issue of crowd size may seem trivial, but not if you know Donald,” Mary writes. “Empty seats, low Republican voter turnout, and dropping enthusiasm are the reality of Donald’s campaign. The data show a growing number of Republicans—including, most recently Sen. Susan Collins of Maine—saying they will refuse to support Donald if he wins the nomination.”
Per Politico:
The data supports the idea that there are problems ahead for the former president. Even before the Iowa survey, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that — including independents who say they lean toward one party over the other — Biden had slightly more support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91 percent) than Trump did among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent).
That’s far from a majority of Republicans preparing to pass on Trump in November. But in a close election, it could be enough to tip the scales for Democrats. At a minimum, it is a major liability for the GOP should the party, as expected, push Trump through as its nominee.
Despite mounting evidence that he will be an incredibly weak candidate going into the general election, the Republican National Committee briefly floated the idea of formally declaring Trump the party’s 2024 presumptive nominee this week, more than a month ahead of Super Tuesday.
It withdrew the resolution yesterday, however, at the request of Trump himself, who said he’d like to satisfaction of defeating his former United Nations ambassador, who he has called “ungrateful” for running against him, at the primary ballot box.
As for Haley, she says she’s committed to staying in the race, even if the RNC and others would prefer she fade away. In a fundraising email this week, she wrote, “The RNC is leveraging the establishment to try and crown Trump the presumptive nominee. Well I have news for them: I’m in this to win it and I’m not going anywhere.”
Looks like we’re in for more mud-slinging and empty auditoriums, folx!
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ZzBomb
(We should also note that Haley won 60% of independent voters, compared to Trump’s 38%, which could spell doom for him should be advance to the general election.)
Well that and Fox News’ own polling in NH found that a whopping 35% of Republican voters said they refuse to vote for Trump even if he wins the nomination as well.
Turns out being an asshole is only “cool” for so long before people become tired of you and ignore you completely.
dbmcvey
And Biden won 55% of Democratic voters even though he wasn’t on the ballot and had to be written in.
ZzBomb
@db
Actually, and I just checked this, Biden won 64% as a write in. That’s pretty impressive.
dbmcvey
Even better considering he wasn’t on the ballot.
ZzBomb
Right!? And spent a fraction of what Trump, Haley and Desantis did in campaign spending there.
Couple this with the fact that the RNC is suffering a funding shortage and being out-raised and out-spent by the DNC is giving me hope.
Biden may not be perfect, but I’ll take imperfection if it means stability over chaos 10 times out of 10.
Openminded
I’ll admit, Biden did well considering his write in status. That said, he still garnered only 80,000 votes. Haley received almost twice that many votes. My point is, percentages is a typical game used to make things look extremely good or extremely bad. If this had been NH’s primary race, Biden would have lost to either GOP candidate. As a Republican, even I don’t look forward to another 4 years of Trump in power, but anybody with their eyes and ears open knows it’s looking like that is what is going to happen. IDK why nobody is discussing the fact that, assuming Trump is elected, he’ll enter the office as a “lame duck” leader from the start, which greatly diminishes one’s ability to accomplish anything. I suppose most of the GOP is simply thinking 4 yrs lame is better than no years, but the Democrats should be screaming this to the public in an effort to move more of the hesitant GOP voters away from Trump.
ZzBomb
@open
It’s a long road to November, fraught with court cases.
dbmcvey
He got it as a write in without a real Democratic primary going on.
Also, a huge number of Haley’s voters said they would not vote for Trump, which may or may not play out, but it’s not good for Trump.
Openminded
ZzBomb, you are absolutely correct. There’s a lot to be said for timing your peak.
AJAnders
Trump will do what he always does; go in his imagination to an alternate reality where the crowd is three times the population of the entire planet. Then he’ll brag endlessly about it. And whenever someone who actually lives in reality tries to show him the truth, he’ll start his endlessly whining and crying that he’s part of a witch hunt. There is no bigger sociopath than that POS.
Baron Wiseman
I always love Mary Trump lecturing us on a man she doesn’t know. She must be psychic; the Miss Cleo of politics.
Openminded
Baron, I rarely agree with your statements, but I too have to question that anyone should put much faith in what Mary has to say about her distant uncle. There’s obviously a lot of envy and disdain from her towards DT, which should make anyone question any of her claims as factual. That’s not to say she hasn’t been correct on most of her statements, but, anybody that watches the news could also be making equally accurate statements about Trump. She’s obviously in it for the publicity and sales revenue, not simply as a public service.
dbmcvey
I always love her because she triggers you so much.
abfab
Shrinkage. How embarrassing for you Sharon.
dbmcvey
Trump has shown us over and over who he is. It doesn’t matter that he says he’ll only be a dictator for one day, because he’s shown he intends to be the last democratically elected President of the United States.
He envies Kin Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. He wants to be in that dictator club.
dgsea06
She isn’t a psychic, she’s a clinical psychologist. She studies people’s behavior. She’s Dotard’s niece, she knows him. She knows of what she speaks.
abfab
Oh heaven for bid! PUBLICITY AND SALES REVENUE!!!! Do you even hear yourself?We cant have THAT, Open!
decrans
She hasn’t interacted with him in years. She’s a Birckenstock lesbian who plays the guitar and prattles on about topics that she doesn’t have a damned clue about. Much like the commenters here, mind you.
abfab
And you have, right cranzytranz?
At least she can afford great footwear…….
dbmcvey
She doesn’t need to interact with him. His behavior is on full display, from his racist and sexist treatment of Nikki Halley to his tantrum in the courtroom, this is who he is.
decrans
Meanwhile, I’m sure you didn’t criticize Dr. Phil for his phantom teevee appraisals, right? Of course not.
decrans
And I love how Abcrabs continues to use trans derogatory terms while claiming to be a purveyor of feel-good liberal tolerance. His brain is a goddamned mess.
abfab
You love too much, cranzee. Save some of that for you!
dbmcvey
craps, I have no idea what you’re talking about with Dr. Phil, but I’d be happy to criticize him for his terrible advice and bigotry.
decrans
Well, Mary had a profitable real estate portfolio being waged in court dating back to 1891. But of course, never question her motives. Just Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz doing their TV assessments. Obviously.
dbmcvey
Decraps. Get help.
decrans
Nope. You get help. In any other circumstance, a woman going to court for a sizable Trump portfolio and then pivoting to anti-Trump pontificating would be called into question. Hell, you call Chloe Cole and my motives into question constantly.
LumpyPillows
She seems to nail uncle Donny dead center. He is, among other negative traits, a narcissist. And a sociopath. Which explains why he lies so freely about things to make him look better. We all know it. Even Baron, but he can’t admit it.
decrans
A narcissist and a sociopath? Yes. Is a degree necessary to make that assertion? No. Is she cashing on her fifteen minutes of fame after a failed lawsuit much like other Trump family members with nothing substantial to add for the common layperson with two eyes? That’s another yes.
LumpyPillows
The part you missed, of course, is that Donny screwed his brother and other family members over and got away with it. Just like he screws over small businesses. The only thing Don is good at is abusing the court system.
Mister P
Most voters sit out the primaries. Certainly the moderates sat out this election. So judging how the general election will go based on who voted in NH is not an accurate prediction of the general election.
abfab
The MAGA crowd is many years older and fatter. Half won’t make it up off the Stratolounger this go around…..
dbmcvey
It never really is. It’s a state with a very narrow demographic.
still_onthemark
Also, the older & fatter MAGA crowd are at high risk from Covid and they refuse to get the vaccine (even though it’s sort of the “Trump vaccine” as Baron points out). This problem was evident in several 2022 races, especially in Nevada where Adam Laxalt lost.
abfab
Well ya know kids, she could have HIT HIM in the balls but he doesn’t have those.
LumpyPillows
Don is in serious trouble. His cake walk isn’t a cake walk and he’s going to unravel every day just a bit more. He barely breaks 50% in a two person race. There is blood in the water…I predict the Donny magic cult is in for a rude awakening.
Openminded
What I see as the problem is that the MAGA’s are a large number and history has shown that there is nothing that will sway their opinion of DT. I believe Trump could suck off Biden on national TV and the homophobic MAGA crowd would still love Trump. The only good news is that I don’t believe he can get elected fairly on MAGA support only and I believe that will be all he has come November.
Herman75
Trump is infuriated anyone dared run against him. He has a lot of sh!t on his plate right now. The last thing he needs is to campaign against a woman again.
Bless his heart.