You’re about to win the Oscar pool, so place some bets with friends now or find yourself an Oscar party tomorrow night. You can thank us on Monday.

These are the likely winners for every award during the evening. If your friends only vote on the major categories, they’re lightweights — but you can still impress them by calling out the winner when they present Documentary Short and getting it right.

12Years

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave.

Gay Trivia: Star Michael Fassbinder played a sex addict that frequents gay sex clubs in the film Shame.

McConaughey

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. Oscar loves a comeback, and McConaughey survived romantic comedy hell (Failure to Launch, anyone?) to rebuild his career as a serious actor.

Gay Trivia: McConaughey plays a homophobic redneck with AIDS in the 1980’s, and this wrenching, funny, startling film is required viewing for any gay man under 30. Check out this review.

Blanchette

Best Actress: Cate Blanchette, for her shipwrecked socialite in Blue Jasmine.

Gay Trivia: Cate guest stars as a meth-addicted lesbian judge (no kidding) in an upcoming episode of the Australian drama series Rake.

Leto

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club. Leto’s turn as Rayon, a transgender AIDS patient, captures your heart and then breaks it.

Gay Trivia: Co-star Matthew McConaughey says he didn’t “meet” Leto until the film’s premiere, because Leto remained strictly in character as Rayon during the entire one-month shoot.

Nyongo

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave. Lupita never lets her doomed character lose her dignity.

Gay Trivia: Have you seen her red carpet appearances? She has become a fashion icon in less than six months for her knockout gowns in bold solids. You go, girl.

GravityCuaron

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity.

Gay Trivia: Cuaron directed the spicy Mexican film Y Tu Mama Tambien, which climaxes with the two straight male stars in bed together.

Gravity will take most technical awards, including editing, cinematography, visual effects and score. Her will take original screenplay and 12 Years a Slave will win for adapted screenplay. Makeup will go to Dallas Buyers Club (the subtle makeup went far beyond the actors’ weight loss).

And here’s the nitty gritty for advanced Oscar watchers: Italy’s A Great Beauty will win for foreign film, and Frozen will take best animated film as well as best song, for “Let It Go.” Animated short will go to Get a Horse! in which none other than Mickey Mouse makes an appearance.

Best documentary will go to the shocking The Act of Killing, documentary short to The Lady in #6, and live action short will go to That Wasn’t Me.

Congratulations to everyone who (we think) will win! And always expect an upset or two. They keep life interesting.

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