nate-silver-oscarsStar statistician and gay geek extraordinaire has turned his vast numbers-crunching powers to this Sunday’s Academy Awards and according to his results, Anne Hathaway, Daniel Day-Lewis and Argo are shoe-ins for Oscar gold.

According to Silver, Argo is the insider favorite for Best Picture — as opposed to Zero Dark Thirty, which was more of a critical darling — and has already won nearly every major award in that category.

Affleck would be a lock for the Best Director trophy if he hadn’t been so publicly snubbed by the Academy, leaving Kathryn Bieglow as the second most likely choice. But she, too, was snubbed, leaving a narrow margin of victory between Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) over Ang Lee (Life of Pi).

Spielberg already has two Best Director Oscars, plus a Best Picture win for Schindler’s List, so a fourth might be overkill, but we’re not the statisticians here.

As for Lincoln‘s leading man, Silver predicts Daniel Day-Lewis will win his third Best Actor Oscar — a record, btdubs — leaving Bradley Cooper to contemplate a third Hangover sequel.

Cooper’s Silver Linings Playbook co-star Jennifer Lawrence leads the pack, though Silver cites Jessica Chastain and Amour‘s Emmanuelle Riva as “viable alternatives.” Quvenzhané Wallis will have to go back to daycare.

Best Supporting Actor was perhaps the hardest to predict and Silver chose Lincoln‘s Tommy Lee Jones in what he describes as the “most competitive category.” Poor Robert De Niro is pegged in last place, but Silver concedes he is the “sentimental choice.” Either way, anyone who wins in this category will be adding another Oscar to their mantle.

Anne Hathaway. Anne Fucking Hathaway. she’s swept nearly every Best Supporting Actress award and Silver considers her “about as safe a bet to win for Les Misérables as Mitt Romney was to win Utah.” So confident is Silver in Hathaway’s victory, that “if Sally Field or Amy Adams wins instead, it will probably be time for me to retire from the Oscar-forecasting business.”

Well, let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. Tune into the Oscars on Sunday at 7pm/4c on ABC to find out if Silver was on the money.

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